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Polymarket prediction markets are showing a cautious outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, with traders assigning a 67% probability that BTC will trade below $55,000 and a 43% chance of falling under $45,000. These odds reflect shifting sentiment as traders weigh macro uncertainty, historical cycle behavior, and weakening momentum after recent volatility. Market participants are also mapping potential cycle bottom zones ranging roughly between 60,000 and 38,000 dollars. The data highlights growing debate on whether Bitcoin is entering a deeper correction phase.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority has issued its first stablecoin issuer licences under the new Stablecoins Ordinance to HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial Limited, a consortium backed by Standard Chartered, Animoca Brands, and Hong Kong Telecom. Both entities are allowed to issue Hong Kong dollar-backed stablecoins, with launches expected in the coming months. This marks a major step in Hong Kong’s regulated digital asset strategy as it moves to build a secure and institutionally driven stablecoin ecosystem.

Japan’s Cabinet has approved a bill to officially classify cryptocurrencies as financial instruments, marking a major regulatory shift. The new framework introduces stricter oversight, including a ban on insider trading and mandatory annual disclosures for related entities. By bringing crypto under financial market regulations, Japan aims to improve transparency, strengthen investor protection, and align digital assets with traditional financial standards. The move signals growing global efforts to integrate cryptocurrency into established regulatory systems.

Iran is proposing a plan to charge about $1 per barrel in cryptocurrency or other digital assets like stablecoins and yuan for oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz during a two‑week ceasefire deal with the United States, according to reports. Fully loaded tankers must submit cargo and vessel details before payment, while empty ships may be exempt. Officials say the measure is intended to allow Iran to monitor ship movements and prevent weapons transfers, marking an unusual use of crypto in global oil transit.

A long-running dispute between OKX founder Star Xu and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao has resurfaced following Zhao’s memoir release. Xu claims that in 2014, while Zhao was CTO at OKCoin, he altered a contract tied to a deal with Roger Ver by adding a termination clause. Xu shared past chat records as proof and accused Zhao of dishonesty. Zhao previously denied the claim, citing a hacked account, and addressed it in his book without new details.

Jiang Zhuoer, once a top Bitcoin mining leader in China, says he has shorted Ethereum, expecting prices to fall in the coming weeks and months. Based on on-chain metrics and broader market patterns, he believes the crypto bear cycle is still intact, and any sharp rallies are shorting opportunities rather than trend reversals. Zhuoer also warned that rising geopolitical tensions could trigger fresh uncertainty in markets, calling this period “America’s Suez Canal moment.”

Bitcoin mining company MARA transferred 250 BTC worth about $17.37 million to an external address, according to on-chain data. This latest move follows the firm’s large sale of 15,133 BTC valued at roughly $1.1 billion between March 4 and March 25, which was part of its broader balance-sheet strategy. The continued transfers have drawn market attention as investors watch how public miners manage their Bitcoin reserves amid changing conditions in the crypto sector.

BlackRock has filed with the SEC to launch the iShares Nasdaq-100 ETF, ticker IQQ, designed to track the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, dominated by tech leaders. The move directly challenges Invesco’s QQQ and QQQM, which together manage nearly $446 billion in assets. Analysts predict BlackRock could ignite a fee war, with costs potentially dropping to 0.12 percent. The launch aims to enhance liquidity and reduce investor costs in the $13.7 trillion U.S. ETF market while leveraging the Nasdaq-100’s long-term outperformance over the S&P 500.

On-chain perpetual futures trading on decentralized exchanges has seen a steady five-month decline, dropping from $1.36 trillion in October 2025 to $699 billion in March 2026. Daily volumes touched $8.4 billion on April 4, the lowest level since July 2025, signaling reduced market activity. Trading is increasingly concentrated, with Hyperliquid alone contributing about 34% of the past 30-day volume. The trend indicates a slowdown in overall participation, with liquidity and market influence consolidating among a few dominant players.