U.S CPI Report Today : Inflation Rate Falls to 2.4%

For the week ending April 5, initial U.S. jobless claims increased by 4,000 to 223,000, aligning with expectations. Continuing claims for the week ending March 29 decreased by 43,000 to 1.85 million, indicating ongoing stability in the labor market. These figures suggest that, despite minor fluctuations, employment trends remain steady, reflecting resilience amid broader economic conditions.​

In March 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 2.4%, below the anticipated 2.5%, while Core CPI decreased to 2.8%, under the expected 3.0%. This marks the second consecutive monthly decline in both indices. Despite this cooling inflation, the recent escalation in tariffs, particularly the 125% rate on Chinese imports, is expected to exert upward pressure on future prices. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as they may significantly influence market trends and Federal Reserve policy decisions.​

In March 2025, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased by 0.1% seasonally adjusted, following a 0.2% increase in February. Year-over-year, the all items index rose 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. The energy index fell 2.4%, with gasoline prices dropping 6.3%, offsetting rises in electricity and natural gas. Conversely, the food index increased by 0.4%, driven by a 0.5% rise in food at home and 0.4% in food away from home. Excluding food and energy, the index rose 0.1%, with increases in personal care, medical care, education, apparel, and new vehicles, while airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and recreation declined. Over the past 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February, with the core index up 2.8%, the smallest increase since March 2021.​

The U.S. dollar has declined nearly 6% year-to-date, reaching its lowest point this year, despite a rise in Treasury yields. This depreciation has bolstered unhedged non-U.S. stocks. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM EST today, which could significantly influence market trends and Federal Reserve policy decisions.​

​On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of most U.S. tariffs, maintaining a baseline 10% rate, while increasing tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing China’s prior retaliatory measures. This decision led to a significant global market rally, with the S&P 500 surging 5.6%, marking one of its most substantial single-day gains since World War II. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release at 8:30 AM EST today, which could influence market trends and Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his latest speech, expressed concern over the escalating tariffs, noting they are significantly larger than anticipated and pose substantial risks to price stability and economic growth. He highlighted that these tariffs are likely to lead to higher inflation, potentially reflected in upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, and could dampen economic expansion. Powell emphasized the Federal Reserve’s commitment to closely monitor these developments and maintain a cautious approach, refraining from premature interest rate adjustments to ensure economic stability.

The U.S. CPI data for March will be released today. Forecasts point to slowing inflation amid weaker demand and declining consumer confidence. However, early pricing pressures could surface in sectors like Chinese imports and autos.

Market Consensus:
🔹 Core CPI (YoY): 3.0% (Prev 3.1%)
🔹 Core CPI (MoM): 0.3% (Prev 0.2%)
🔹 Headline CPI (YoY): 2.6% (Prev 2.8%)
🔹 Headline CPI (MoM): 0.1% (Prev 0.2%)

Crypto analyst Limitless forecasts that the upcoming US CPI rise will be below 0.1%, signaling softer inflation. If accurate, this could trigger a bullish reaction across markets, especially for Bitcoin. Traders are urged to position themselves accordingly ahead of the release.

Forecasters expect a mild March CPI report, with a 0.08% rise in headline inflation and 0.24% for core. If accurate, headline CPI would come in at 2.5% year-over-year, while core CPI would drop to 3.0%—a four-year low. This could be the last CPI report unaffected by tariffs, making it a key indicator for inflation trends and market sentiment. A softer print may boost investor confidence and influence Bitcoin and broader market direction.

The US CPI data releases today at 8:30 AM ET (6:00 PM IST), with a forecast of 2.5%, down from the previous 2.8%. Key levels to watch: a reading below 2.8% is bullish, at 2.8% is neutral, and above 2.8% is bearish. This release could significantly impact Bitcoin and the broader market, potentially signaling the next major move. Investors are closely eyeing the data for signs of cooling inflation and possible Fed policy shifts.

U.S CPI data will be released today at 8:30 AM ET.