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Zafar Naik
Zafar Naik
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- Apr 11, 2025 10:48 UTC
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Fed’s QT Could Delay Major ETH Rally Until 2025, Warns Analyst
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ETH $ 1,613.37 (2.03%) 
Ethereum's price volatility is influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen sees Ethereum's current market behavior as a repeat of 2019 patterns.
Ethereum's potential price surge is tied to the projected end of quantitative tightening in mid-2025, suggesting a period of patient waiting for investors.
Donald Trump’s tariff war and pause theory have created a rollercoaster of effects in the crypto market. One moment, Ethereum was on a roll—pushing past $1,550 and briefly touching $1,687. The next, it lost momentum and slipped below key resistance levels, now trading under $1,580. It’s a classic case of “so close, yet so far.”
But why is Ethereum struggling to hold its ground? As a new bearish trend line forms, bulls are under pressure to either break through or brace for a drop toward the $1,500 zone.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen thinks there’s more to the story—and it may go deeper than just price charts. Let’s dive in.
Cowen Sees 2019 Pattern Repeating
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes Ethereum’s recent struggles aren’t random. In his latest YouTube video, he points out that ETH is repeating a similar pattern from 2019—but with a twist. This time, the cycle is taking longer to play out. According to Cowen, the slowdown is largely due to macroeconomic pressure, especially the extended period of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Quantitative Tightening: The Hidden Weight on ETH
QT is when the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet to tighten the money supply—usually to control inflation. While this might be good for the economy long-term, it creates a tough environment for risk assets like Ethereum. In the previous market cycle, QT ended before Bitcoin’s halving, which gave the crypto market room to grow. But this time, QT has continued even after the halving, adding more pressure.
Fed May End QT by Mid-2025 – Will That Help ETH?
Cowen highlights a January summary from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which suggests the Fed could end QT by mid-2025. If that timeline holds, Ethereum might start gaining strength again once more liquidity returns to the market. Until then, Cowen warns that ETH may continue to lag behind faster-moving and more speculative altcoins.
Ethereum Price Outlook
At the time of Cowen’s video, Ethereum was trading around $1,652, showing a 12% gain in the last 24 hours. Still, ETH has struggled to outperform the wider crypto market. With bearish trend lines, strong resistance levels, and the weight of economic policy, Ethereum is finding it hard to lead the current cycle.
To sum it up, Cowen doesn’t see Ethereum’s slow movement as a failure of the asset. Instead, he sees it as a result of ongoing economic tightening. If the Fed sticks to its plan and ends QT in 2025, Ethereum could finally have space to grow. Until then, it’s all about staying patient.
Patience, it seems, is the new ‘hodl’.
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FAQs
As per our Ethereum price prediction 2025, the ETH price could reach a maximum of $5,925.
The largest altcoin’s price could propel to a maximum of $6,925 in 2025. ETH is expected to cross the $15,575 mark by 2030.
As per our latest ETH price analysis, Ethereum could reach a maximum price of $123,678.
By 2050, a single Ethereum price could go as high as $255,282.
Yes 
No 
