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- Zafar Naik
Zafar Naik
- Reviewed by:
Qadir AKQadir Ak is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the cryptocurrency space.
- Oct 09, 2025 09:35 UTC
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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Officially Dead, Declares Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes declares Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle is dead, calling the old pattern unreliable.
Future Bitcoin rallies will be driven by global liquidity and central bank policies, not block rewards.
Hayes warns cheap money from the US and China will continue to shape BTC’s next bull run.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and one of crypto’s most influential thinkers, has a message for the market: the old Bitcoin cycle is gone forever.
Here are some of the most significant insights from his latest blog post titled “Long Live the King“.
The End of a Familiar Pattern
For years, traders have believed that Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable four-year rhythm – a rise after every halving, followed by a crash. Hayes says that belief is outdated.
“There have been three cycles where the all-time high occurred every four years,” he wrote. “Traders apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past. And without this historical understanding, they miss why it will fail this time.”
According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s past bull runs weren’t driven by halvings at all. They were powered by one thing, that is liquidity. In other words, Bitcoin moved with the flow of global money, not with its own supply schedule.
How Money Printing Shaped Bitcoin’s Rise
Hayes breaks Bitcoin’s history into four distinct cycles:
- Genesis Cycle (2009–2013): Born out of the 2008 crisis, fueled by U.S. money printing and China’s credit boom.
- ICO Cycle (2013–2017): Driven by China’s liquidity surge and Ethereum’s arrival.
- COVID Cycle (2017–2021): Fed stimulus and “helicopter money” under Trump sent all assets soaring.
- New World Order (2021–Present): A shift from predictable cycles to policy-driven markets.
Every major rally, he notes, began when money was cheap and plentiful and every crash came when credit tightened.
The New World Order
Today’s market, Hayes says, runs on politics more than halving charts. The U.S. and China, the world’s largest economies, are again turning to easy money.
In the U.S., President Trump wants to “run the economy hot” and is pushing for lower interest rates. Treasury policies have already added trillions in liquidity. Meanwhile, China is fighting deflation and preparing to ease credit conditions.
“Money shall be cheaper and more plentiful,” Hayes wrote. “Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”
What It Means for Bitcoin
Has the old Bitcoin cycle really ended? Some of the proof is undeniable. The next phase will depend on global liquidity, not halvings.
Bitcoin, Hayes believes, is still the strongest form of money. Only now, its path forward will be shaped by central banks, not block rewards.
Stay tuned to Coinpedia for more such insights.
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FAQs
Bitcoin could hit $150,000 to $200,000 by end-2025, driven by ETF inflows and liquidity boosts. Experts see strong upside, but watch for volatility around $120K support.
By 2030, Bitcoin may reach $500,000 to $1 million, fueled by global adoption and institutional demand. Optimistic forecasts like ARK’s $2.4M highlight its store-of-value role.
Bitcoin’s 2040 price could soar to $2 million to $6 million as halvings tighten supply and networks expand. Fidelity eyes $1 billion by 2040, emphasizing long-term scarcity.
In 2050, Bitcoin might climb to $3 million to $8 million, becoming a key global asset. Bullish models predict even higher if it captures trade settlement shares.
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