Summer Lull Hits Bitcoin Price: What to Expect for Q4 2024?

Bitcoin just took a tumble, falling below $54,000 and its key 200-day average! This sudden dip comes as two major events shake the crypto market: Mt. Gox is finally returning funds to creditors, and the German government is unloading its seized Bitcoin.

As Bitcoin enters its expected summer lull, renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has highlighted this period of stagnation. Cowen has frequently discussed Bitcoin’s summer slowdown, a time when its price tends to dip or remain static.

Now that this period has arrived, he is turning his attention to the potential market trends for the rest of the year.

Can Bitcoin Break Through?

The critical question is whether Bitcoin can climb back above its Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) in the coming weeks or if it will continue to face resistance. In a recent thread, Cowen noted that Bitcoin is currently falling below its BMSB during the summer of 2024. This pattern isn’t new; similar trends have been observed in previous years.

For instance, in August 2023, Bitcoin dipped below its BMSB, lingered there for a few weeks, and then experienced a robust rally in Q4.

Historical Patterns and Predictions

In 2013, Bitcoin hit a low in early July but quickly rebounded above the 21-week EMA, leading to a significant rally in Q4. Conversely, in 2019, Bitcoin’s summer decline persisted below the BMSB after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, resulting in further drops in Q4.

Cowen also draws parallels between Bitcoin’s current performance and its post-halving period in 2016. This similarity suggests that we might witness comparable trends this time around. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of the post-halving year, which for the current cycle would be 2025.

Key Factors to Watch Out For

Several key factors will influence Bitcoin’s future movements:

1. Bull Market Support Band: Whether Bitcoin can climb back above its BMSB, a crucial level for determining its trend.
2. Federal Reserve Policies: Changes in interest rates can significantly impact the market.
3. Market Sentiment: Investor confidence and trading volumes play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s performance.
4. Ethereum’s Performance: Particularly the ETH/BTC ratio, which has shown patterns similar to past cycles.

Looking Ahead to Q4 2024

According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s fate in Q4 2024 hinges on whether it can reclaim its position above the BMSB. If it follows the patterns of 2013, 2016, and 2023, a strong recovery and rally could be on the horizon. However, if it mirrors the trend of 2019, Bitcoin might continue to struggle.

As we navigate through the summer slowdown, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s ability to break through its current resistance and the various factors that will shape its journey in the coming months.

Read Also: 2024 US Voters Bet Big on Bitcoin: What’s Fueling the Crypto Fever? 

Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain. What are your hopes for the rest of the year?