95% of Bitcoin Is Gone, Institutions Still Waiting: Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Warns of Supply Shock

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan just turned up the heat among the Bitcoin enthusiasts as he cites that 95% of Bitcoin is already locked up, while 95% of the world’s wealth hasn’t touched it. This scarcity showdown is set to ignite a massive price surge. 

With institutional interest ramping up and supply rapidly shrinking, Hougan believes we’re entering a multi-year bull run – and early holders might be in for the ride of a lifetime.

Bitcoin Supply Shrinks to Just 5.7%

Hougan pointed out that Bitcoin’s annual supply growth is now only 0.84%, making it scarcer than gold. This was backed by Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, who described Bitcoin as the most limited store of value on the planet.

Out of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply, just 5.7% is still available to be mined. And according to a recent Bitwise report, 69% of all circulating Bitcoin is held by individuals. Institutions and ETFs combined only control 10.5%.

This creates a tough situation for any government wanting to build a serious position in Bitcoin. Hougan summed it up clearly: if they want in, they’ll have to buy from individual holders.

Institutions Are Buying Faster Than Bitcoin Can Be Produced

During his talk at the Consensus 2025 Conference in Toronto, Hougan highlighted how demand is now racing ahead of supply. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETFs, Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy buys, and other corporate investments are flooding in at a rate that new Bitcoin supply can’t keep up with.

That supply-demand pressure is the foundation behind Hougan’s bold forecast: Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of this year.

His view aligns with other industry leaders. Eleanor Terrett, host of Crypto in America, mentioned that Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead believes the market has only seen half of Bitcoin’s upside. Hougan agreed, suggesting that the asset still has a long way to go.

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Hougan Predicts a Five-Year Bull Market

Hougan went further, saying this could be the beginning of a five-year bull run. That’s a major shift from Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle.

What’s different this time?

• Regulatory conditions in the US are improving under a more crypto-friendly Trump administration
  
• ETFs are creating a simpler gateway for institutional capital
  
• Corporate and even government interest in Bitcoin is growing rapidly

Together, these forces are creating what Hougan sees as a perfect storm for long-term price growth.

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