
Circle minted $8 billion in USDC during the crypto downturn.
USDC has overtaken USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019.
Stablecoin market cap has crossed $300 billion as Bitcoin posts 8% weekly gains.
Bitcoin is up 7.3% on the week, trading at $73,238. Ethereum has climbed 12.34% in seven days. The Fear and Greed Index, which was deep in Extreme Fear territory just weeks ago, has recovered to 39.
Something is shifting, and the stablecoin market may have seen it coming.
The Dry Powder Thesis
Since the start of February, Circle has minted over $8 billion in USDC, pushing total circulation above $78 billion even as crypto markets were at their weakest.
Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham flagged the on-chain activity on X, asking pointedly whether that kind of minting is normal for a bear market. Their on-chain data shows where this supply is actually sitting: 66% of circulating USDC is on Ethereum, with 10.7% on Solana equating to $8.4 billion, and further chunks spread across Ethereum Layer 2s, including Base at 5.5% and Arbitrum at 2.7%.
That distribution matters because it shows capital parked across the most active trading and DeFi networks, not withdrawn from the ecosystem.
In traditional finance, this is called dry powder: capital held in reserve, ready to deploy the moment conditions shift.
USDC Is Winning the Stablecoin Race
Within that broader story, USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019. Adjusted volume strips out automated transfers and internal movements to give a cleaner read on real economic activity. On that measure, Mizuho reports USDC recorded roughly $2.2 trillion year-to-date against USDT’s $1.3 trillion, a 64% share.
Mizuho raised its Circle price target to $120 on the back of the data. Bernstein went further at $190, citing USDC’s supply resilience through the crypto downturn as a structural signal rather than a short-term move. The regulated stablecoin is gaining serious ground.
Why the Scale of This Matters
Stablecoins processed $33 trillion in transactions in 2025, matching Visa’s annual volume. In Nigeria, 59% of crypto users hold USDT as a dollar savings account against a weakening local currency. The same pattern runs through Argentina, Colombia and the Philippines. This capital base is deep, global and increasingly looking for somewhere to go.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected the stablecoin market reaches $3 trillion by 2030. With crypto sentiment recovering and stablecoin market cap crossing over $300 billion, the infrastructure carrying the next wave of capital is building steadily.
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FAQs
Rising USDC supply may signal “dry powder.” Investors hold stablecoins to deploy quickly when market conditions improve.
Large USDC minting suggests capital is waiting on-chain. This liquidity can quickly enter Bitcoin, Ethereum, or DeFi if sentiment improves.
Estimates suggest the stablecoin market could reach around $3 trillion by 2030 as global demand for digital dollars continues to grow.
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