Here’s Why XRP Price is Stuck Below $2—Is This Capitulation or a Setup for Reversal?

XRP price has been stuck within a strong descending trend for the past 8 months, which has kept the volume within a restricted range. The rally has been consistently printing lower highs and lows and is currently capped below the resistance for more than a month, which has prevented the bulls from pushing the price to $2. 

Another major reason for the price failing to break the resistance at $1.5 and reach $2 is a large chunk of XRP accumulated above this range. That pain is now visible on the chart as every bounce is sold into. But now, the trend is slowing as prices are no longer collapsing but compressing. 

Realized Loss Spikes Signal Capitulation Phase

The Glassnode data shows a sharp rise in realized losses across multiple holder cohorts, particularly in the 1d–1w and 1w–1m age bands, indicating that recent buyers are exiting positions at a loss. Historically, such clusters of realized losses tend to occur near local bottoms, as weaker hands exit and stronger hands absorb supply.

At the same time, the presence of losses across older cohorts (3m–12m) suggests that even mid-term holders—those who accumulated during the rally phase—are now capitulating. This aligns with the earlier insight that a large portion of XRP supply is underwater, reinforcing the idea that the market has already gone through a significant pain cycle. The data also suggests that, at the current price range, only 43.4% of the XRP supply is in profit, the lowest since July 2024. 

This type of behaviour usually results in a volatility expansion, not the continuation of a choppy phase. 

XRP Price Compressing at a Key Support

The XRP weekly chart is now entering a critical phase where price structure, momentum, and positioning are converging. Currently, XRP is consolidating between $1.27 support and the $1.35–$1.40 range, with a deeper support sitting at $1.12. This marks the area where buyers are beginning to step in after months of selling pressure. 

The MACD remains in bearish territory, with both lines still below zero, while heading for a bullish crossover. This suggests that the momentum could flip in favour of bulls at any time from now, as the downside momentum is slowly fading. Moreover, the selling volume has also declined, compared to the initial breakdown, while the candles are tightening, indicating a volatility compression. Therefore, the XRP price may be primed for a transition but not an immediate reversal. 

Key Levels That Define the Next Move

This entire structure now revolves around a few critical levels:

• $1.27 → Immediate support (decision level)
• $1.12 → Final support before deeper breakdown
• $1.80 → Major resistance/trend invalidation level

As long as XRP trades below $1.80, the broader structure remains bearish. But holding above $1.27 keeps the market in a compression phase, where a breakout in either direction becomes increasingly likely.

The Bottom Line: What’s Next for XRP Price?

XRP price is now trading at a critical turning point after a prolonged downtrend, with price compressing near the $1.27 support zone while bearish momentum continues to fade. Although the broader structure remains weak below $1.80, the current range suggests seller exhaustion and a potential setup for volatility expansion. A sustained hold above support could drive a recovery toward $1.80, but losing $1.27 would likely accelerate downside toward $1.12, making this a decisive zone for the next major move.