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- Zameer Attar
Zameer Attar
- Reviewed by:
Anjali Belgaumkar
Writer by choice, CryptoCurrency Writer, and Researcher by chance. Currently, focusing on financial news and analysis, as well as cryptocurrency news and data. One may not call me a crypto “Enthusiast” but trust me I'm getting there.
- Aug 08, 2025 12:51 UTC
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XRP ETF Approval Odds Rise To 88% Amid Ripple Lawsuit Win
XRP ETF approval recently rose to 88% after facing a drop of 65%.
Bloomberg analyst maintain a 95% of possibility of XRP ETF, critisizing SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw's sentiments.
The odds of XRP ETF approval recently fell by 65%, reportedly due to SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s consistent opposition to crypto ETFs, which shook market confidence. However, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes the reaction was overblown. Since then, sentiment has reversed sharply, with the approval likelihood now surging to around 88%.
Analyst Maintains 95% Probability of XRP ETF Approval
Crenshaw has been consistently voting against all 13 crypto ETF proposals, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP-related products. Her vote resulted in lowering the approval chances from highs above 80-90% down to around 65% to 66%.
Despite this market reaction, Balchunas and James Seyffart maintain an approval probability of 95%. The Bloomberg expert argued that Crenshaw is a lone anti-crypto commissioner, and her vote is pointless against the majority.
Balchunas stated on X, “Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she’s gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it’s meaningless, she’s outnumbered = we haven’t changed our odds, still at 95%.”
What Does the End of Ripple Lawsuit Mean for XRP ETF?
The end of the SEC vs Ripple lawsuit immediately shifted the market sentiment on the XRP ETF. Polymarket odds rose to around 87%, showing a 16% increase. The legal victory brought regulatory clarity and renewed market confidence, addressing the uncertainties in the XRP.
The XRP price even surged to 11.4% after both entities filed a joint dismissal of their appeals. The legal clarity removed a major regulatory obstacle, boosting confidence in a green light for an XRP ETF. Now, if the SEC ultimately approves ETF applications, it will lead to large institutional inflows and a price surge.
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FAQs
Approval odds rebounded to 88% after initially dropping to 65% due to SEC Commissioner Crenshaw’s opposition, with Bloomberg analysts maintaining 95% confidence.
Odds fell temporarily after SEC’s Crenshaw voted against 13 crypto ETFs, but analysts note she’s consistently anti-crypto and outvoted by pro-ETF commissioners.
The SEC-Ripple settlement boosted Polymarket odds to 87% (+16%) by providing regulatory clarity, with XRP price surging 11.4% post-announcement.
Approval could trigger massive institutional inflows, with analysts predicting significant price surges similar to Bitcoin ETF’s $10B+ inflows in 2024.
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