Will XRP Price Crash Ahead of November Escrow Unlock?

XRP’s monthly escrow unlocks have not consistently caused price declines in the past 106 unlock events since January 2018. Ripple is scheduled to release 1 billion XRP on November 1, with half a billion coming from each of two escrow accounts.

XRP’s typical unlock week saw a 0.1% decline, compared with nearly 1% during weeks without an unlock. XRP fell in 51% of unlock weeks, while it declined in 54% of other weeks.

Ripple Has Relocked 700 Million XRP Each Month

Ripple placed 55 billion XRP in escrow in December 2017, setting up a schedule to release 1 billion XRP on the first of each month. Around 31.4 billion XRP remained in escrow before the November unlock.

However, the full 1 billion XRP does not necessarily remain outside escrow. Ripple returned 700 million XRP to escrow within hours of the September and October 2026 releases. The same pattern has occurred every month since August 2025, leaving around 300 million XRP outside escrow each month.

XRP price surged on 59 of the 106 unlock days. When the comparison period was extended to two weeks, the typical unlock period was flat, while a typical two-week period without an unlock saw a decline of around 1.5%.

Bitcoin and Major News Coincided With XRP’s Biggest Moves

Some of XRP’s largest declines during unlock weeks occurred alongside sharp falls in Bitcoin.

In February 2018, XRP dropped around 40% during its worst unlock week on record, falling from approximately $1.35 to $0.82 per token. A holding of 1,000 XRP lost more than $500, while Bitcoin fell 31% over the same period.

In February 2026, XRP declined around 21%, reducing the value of 1,000 XRP from approximately $1,911 to $1,512. Bitcoin also fell 18% during those days.

Other major price movements coincided with regulatory and political developments. In December 2020, XRP fell around 61% during the month after the US Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple on December 22, while Bitcoin rose around 69%.

In December 2024, XRP gained approximately 60% during an unlock week, rising from around $1.47 to $2.36. The move coincided with expectations surrounding the departure of SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the outcome of the US presidential election. Bitcoin rose less than 3% during the same week.

These examples show that major market developments coincided with XRP’s largest moves, although the historical comparison alone cannot establish the cause of every price change.

Also Read : Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030: Will XRP Reach $5?

Recent Data Shows Some Weakness During Unlock Weeks

Crypto analyst cheeky crypto identified a period when XRP declined more frequently during unlock weeks. Since the beginning of 2024, XRP fell in 22 of 34 unlock weeks, or around two-thirds of the time.

However, the pattern became less pronounced in 2025. Since the beginning of that year, XRP fell in 22 of 34 unlock weeks, or around two-thirds of the time.

However, the pattern became less pronounced in 2025. Since the beginning of that year, XRP declined in approximately 59% of unlock weeks, compared with 57% of ordinary weeks.

The month following an unlock was also slightly weaker than a typical month, although the share of months with price declines was nearly the same. The analysis noted that weekly comparisons cannot rule out a gradual effect from the additional XRP remaining outside escrow.

XRP had also fallen from around $3 in the summer of 2025 to approximately $1.31 when the analysis was conducted. The data does not establish whether recurring releases contributed to that longer-term decline.

November Unlock History and October Price Movement

Of the eight November unlocks examined, XRP rose during five unlock weeks. In November 2025, however, XRP fell around 15% during the unlock week as Bitcoin declined 10%.

The most recent unlock, on October 1, 2026, saw the value of 1,000 XRP rise slightly from approximately $1,517 to $1,521 by the end of the week. XRP subsequently fell around 9% in the following week as Bitcoin also declined.

The October data therefore showed a relatively stable unlock week followed by a later decline, rather than an immediate sharp drop on the release date.

What to Watch on November 1

Ripple’s Swell conference is scheduled for October 27–29 in New York, while the US Federal Reserve is due to announce its interest rate decision on October 28. Both developments could influence market conditions before the November unlock.

The next release is scheduled for midnight UTC at the start of November 1, equivalent to 8 p.m. on October 31 in New York.

The amount returned to escrow after the release is an important figure to monitor. The escrow balance could initially fall to around 30.4 billion XRP. If Ripple returns 700 million XRP, the balance would rise to approximately 31.1 billion XRP, leaving around 300 million XRP outside escrow.

The balance may not return immediately. Following the Sunday unlocks in February and March 2026, Ripple’s relocking transactions occurred on Monday. An initial reading of 30.4 billion XRP on November 1 would therefore not, by itself, show how much XRP would ultimately remain outside escrow.

The unlock week will be measured through the November 4 close, with the two-week period ending on November 8. The next scheduled monthly release is December 1.

Historical data suggests that XRP’s monthly escrow unlock has not consistently predicted short-term losses. However, the figures do not prove that escrow releases have no effect on price, particularly over longer periods. Bitcoin’s movements, Federal Reserve decisions and major regulatory developments remain important factors to monitor alongside the amount of XRP returned to escrow.