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- Zafar Naik
Zafar Naik
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Sohrab KhawasSohrab is a passionate cryptocurrency news writer with over five years of experience covering the industry. He keeps a keen interest in blockchain technology and its potential to revolutionize finance. Whether he's trading or writing, Sohrab always keeps his finger on the pulse of the crypto world, using his expertise to deliver informative and engaging articles that educate and inspire. When he's not analyzing the markets, Sohrab indulges in his hobbies of graphic design, minimal design or listening to his favorite hip-hop tunes.
- Mar 05, 2026 10:45 UTC
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Will Bitcoin Recover or Crash to $40K Next? Analysts Can’t Agree
Bitcoin is trading inside the exact resistance zone analysts say determines whether this rally holds or fails.
A crypto analyst warns $2.3 billion in long positions could get wiped and builds the case for $40K.
With oil spiking and inflation rising, the Fed's options are limited too.
Bitcoin is climbing again, up over 7% this week. Whether that means the worst is over, or whether $40K is still ahead, depends entirely on who you ask. Right now, the market is deeply divided.
The Signal Bitcoin Bulls Are Watching
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe flagged something significant today. Bitcoin has hit a key resistance level, and while he doesn’t expect an immediate breakout, he called the short-term trend switch “the most vital trend switch we see since 10/10 has taken place.”
October 10 was the last point the market staged a meaningful directional shift, and van de Poppe sees the current setup as equally significant.
He expects consolidation before any sustained move higher, noting that things take time and a build-up is required.
Why Some Analysts Are Calling for $40K
Not everyone agrees.
Analyst @NoAlphaLimits issued a blunt warning: “$60K is NEXT. The bottom is $40-45K.”
His thesis is built on the Iran conflict’s ripple effects across global markets.
QatarEnergy has declared force majeure, the Strait of Hormuz has become active combat territory, and oil prices are spiking as a result. Rising energy costs are pushing inflation expectations higher, leaving the Federal Reserve with little room to cut rates.
Also Read: Crypto Crash Today: Should You Buy the Bitcoin Dip as US and Israel Strike Iran?
Even traditional safe-haven assets are cracking under the pressure – silver dropped over 11% on Tuesday, with gold also sliding more than 3%, suggesting investors are fleeing risk broadly rather than rotating into alternatives.
His most striking data point: “$2.3 billion in long positions sitting between $60K-$73K” – all of it, he argues, will get wiped.
What the Macro Picture Says
Blockchain advisor Anddy Lian offered the most grounded framework. His read: Bitcoin’s 89% correlation with the S&P 500 is the real story here. This is a macro beta trade, moving in lockstep with equities and rate expectations.
The Fear and Greed Index moved from 19 to 29 in just 24 hours – a meaningful sentiment shift, but still firmly in fear territory.
His critical zone to watch: $72,000-$74,000. As of today, Bitcoin is trading directly inside that range -making the next move from here the most telling signal of the week.
Also important to note that March 6’s Non-Farm Payrolls report could reset the entire outlook overnight.
Bitcoin Crash 2026: What Happens Next?
With geopolitical uncertainty driving volatility across every asset class, Bitcoin’s next move is unlikely to be decided by technicals alone. The Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and the Fed’s response to rising inflation are the variables that matter most right now.
The NFP print is the first hard data point that could shift the outlook in either direction.
Stay tuned to Coinpedia for all crypto market updates.
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FAQs
Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook depends on macro trends. If bullish momentum continues, BTC could revisit $80K–$100K, but geopolitical risks may still cause sharp swings.
If institutional demand grows and market liquidity improves, many analysts believe Bitcoin could eventually test the $100K level in the next major cycle.
Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, global conflicts, oil prices, and investor sentiment across equity and crypto markets.
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