Will an XRP Spot ETF Get Approved? Research Says It’s Unlikely

Ripple CEO brad garlinghouse brad garlinghouse Brad Garlinghouse is the CEO of the financial technology company Ripple Labs, in 2012 by Chris Larsen and Jed McCaleb, and has a headcount of 1,120. It is a financial technology business that specializes in blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency XRP, founded by Brad Garlinghouse. He also played a unique and significant role in creating an advanced cross-border payment using blockchain technology. He is an extremely popular person across the globe in the crypto landscape. Brad has previously served as the CEO of Hightail, a file-sharing service, and is also an active angel investor. Joined Ripple as COO.  He was promoted to be the CEO in December 2016. Initially, he worked at AOL and Yahoo! where he filled in as Senior Vice President at Yahoo!, where he ran its Homepage, Flickr, Yahoo! Mail, and Yahoo Courier divisions. While at Yahoo, he also wrote an inner updated version known as the Peanut Butter Manifesto, requiring the organization to zero in on its core business instead of expanding itself. He is one of the Top Speakers in the Crypto and Blockchain field, where he shares the knowledge and evolvement of the technology in the current space    Quick Facts Full Name Bradley Kent Garlinghouse Birth 06-02-1971, in Topeka, Kansas Nationality American Education Bachelor's degree in Economics, MBA from Harvard Business School. Net Worth $10B (Refer here)   Ripple's native token, XRP is among the top digital assets. As per CoinGape, Brad's company has $100 billion worth of XRP tokens in its reserve. This will help further innovation in Web3 and blockchain projects. As per reports surfing on Binance’s blog, Brad Garlinghouse may step down as CEO of Ripple to join the Crypto Advisory Council, which is led by President Trump. This significant event will boost the adoption of decentralized finance and blockchain growth.   Brad Garlinghouse: Trivia 2007: Served as Senior VP at Yahoo!, heading communications and consumer products. 2012: Became CEO of Hightail, leading digital file-sharing innovations. 2015: Joined Ripple as COO to push blockchain adoption in cross-border payments. 2017: Became CEO of Ripple, driving XRP adoption and blockchain partnerships. 2020: Led Ripple’s defense against the SEC lawsuit over XRP’s security status. 2021: Expanded Ripple’s ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) network for global crypto payments. 2023: Got a partial success against the SEC, declaring XRP as not a security. 2024: Continue leading Ripple in CBDC collaborations and global blockchain finance. 2025: May join Trump's Crypto Advisory Council to set regulations.   Notable Works & Achievements by Brad Garlinghouse Year Achievements Details 2003 Wrote the 'Peanut Butter Manifesto' at Yahoo! Highlighted Yahoo!'s lack of focus in operations. 2015 Joined Ripple as Chief Operating Officer Took measures to integrate blockchain technology into banking systems. 2017 Appointed CEO of Ripple Expanded Ripple's global partnerships, enhancing cross-border payment solutions. 2020 Named in Forbes' List of Wealthiest in Cryptocurrency Recognized for significant contributions to the crypto industry. 2023 Legal Victory in SEC vs. Ripple Case Achieved a favorable ruling impacting cryptocurrency regulations.   EntrepreneurInvestorChief Executive OfficerBoard Member is confident that an XRP spot ETF is inevitable. In fact, Polymarket bettors seem to agree, giving it an 81% chance of approval this year. Sounds promising, right?

But hold on – a new study by top ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tells a different story. According to his research, XRP has lower approval odds than Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and even Dogecoin (DOGE). Yes, you read that right—DOGE, the meme coin, might have a better shot at an ETF than XRP!

So, what’s really going on? And why is XRP falling behind? Let’s dive into the details.

Why Is XRP ETF Facing a Tough Time?

Balchunas’s research suggests XRP has only a 65% chance of getting a spot ETF approval in 2024. The main reason? The SEC does not classify XRP as a commodity, which makes approval more difficult.

Despite these challenges, XRP’s price remains strong. It is currently trading at $2.49, with a 365.8% increase over the past year—despite market ups and downs fueled by Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC.

Solana Has Better Odds Than XRP

The study also reveals that Solana (SOL) has a stronger chance of getting an ETF than XRP. The research gives SOL over a 70% probability of approval in 2025.

This is surprising because the SEC labeled SOL an unregistered security in its lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance. However, the report notes that the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s Solana ETF proposal boosts its chances.

Currently, SOL is priced at $202.50, up 84.4% in the past year.

Litecoin ETF Has the Best Odds 

Importantly, the research notes that there is a 90% probability of an LTC spot ETF to get approval from the US SEC in 2025. 

The research emphasises its clear regulatory status as a prime reason enabling it to gain a better position than XRP and SOL.

At the moment, LTC is trading at $127.44, showing a 76.7% increase over the past year. Just in the last seven days, it has surged by 27%.

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Dogecoin’s ETF Chances Shock Analysts

The biggest surprise in the research? Dogecoin (DOGE) has a better chance at ETF approval than both XRP and SOL.

While the report doesn’t give an exact percentage, it states that DOGE—a meme coin—has “far better” odds of getting SEC approval than the two major altcoins.

Balchunas’s research suggests that XRP has the lowest ETF approval odds among major altcoins, while Litecoin has the highest.

However, Polymarket traders are much more optimistic about an XRP ETF. In the end, the SEC’s stance will determine which cryptocurrencies get approval.

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With the ETF race heating up, XRP may need more than just optimism to secure its spot among the approved.