Why Is SpaceX Stock Crashing Today? $109B Share Unlock Sparks 12% Drop

Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) stock is under heavy pressure today, dropping more than 12% to around $109. The sharp fall comes even after the company reported strong revenue growth, as investors are worried about a massive $109 billion share unlock, huge AI spending, and growing pressure on future cash flow.

Why Is SpaceX Stock Falling Despite Strong Earnings?

SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% from a year ago and above Wall Street estimates. Adjusted EBITDA almost tripled to $3.5 billion, while its net loss narrowed to $541 million.

However, investors reacted negatively after the company revealed quarterly capital spending had jumped nearly six times to $18.4 billion. 

Around $15.8 billion of that spending went toward building AI computing infrastructure, raising concerns about how long it will take before these investments start generating meaningful returns.

Speaking during the earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen defended the spending, saying the company expects less than a one-year payback on parts of its AI compute investments.

$109 Billion Share Unlock Adds Selling Pressure

The biggest reason behind today’s sell-off is the expiration of the first phase of SpaceX’s rolling lock-up period.

Beginning 6 August, nearly 912 million shares became eligible for trading for the first time. At current prices, those shares are worth roughly $109 billion.

The expiration allows early investors and employees to sell their holdings, increasing the number of shares available in the market and creating strong selling pressure.

JPMorgan noted that the event could increase SpaceX’s public float by around 143%, although analysts believe part of the impact may already be reflected in the stock price after months of investor anticipation.

AI Spending and Bitcoin Exposure Raise New Questions

Analysts are also watching SpaceX’s aggressive AI expansion closely. JPMorgan now expects the company to spend nearly $200 billion on capital projects in both 2027 and 2028, putting additional pressure on future free cash flow.

At the same time, SpaceX kept all 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet during the quarter. The holdings were valued at around $1.1 billion at the end of June. 

However, under current accounting rules, Bitcoin price swings directly affect reported earnings, and the position lost roughly $195 million in value during the quarter.