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- Zafar Naik
Zafar Naik
- Reviewed by:
Qadir AKQadir Ak is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the cryptocurrency space.
- Jan 29, 2026 10:37 UTC
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Why Is Bitcoin Price Not Moving? Raoul Pal Explains ‘Largest Liquidation Event in History’
Bitcoin’s quiet price action may be tied to a historic liquidation event the market still hasn’t absorbed.
Raoul Pal says crypto isn’t weak, but is lagging behind a liquidity cycle already lifting other assets.
With gold surging and elections nearing, Pal believes crypto’s moment hasn’t arrived yet.
Real Vision founder Raoul Pal said the crypto market’s weakness isn’t a sign the bull run is over. It just hasn’t started yet. The macro investor gave a specific timeline: crypto prices should start moving by end of February 2026.
But first, he explained what’s been holding the market back in a recent video on Savvy Finance.
What Really Happened on October 10th
Pal called the October 10th crash the largest crypto liquidation event in history. It started on Binance and spread across Asian exchanges.
“October the 10th was a crypto-specific event where everything broke basically on Binance and a few of the Asian exchanges and everybody got liquidated. The largest liquidation event in history and the market has not recovered from that yet,” he said.
Market maker APIs broke during the sell-off. Automated liquidations kept firing with no buyers on the other side. Pal believes exchanges absorbed billions in positions to stop a full collapse. They’re now slowly selling that inventory, which explains the constant downward pressure.
Gold Is Telling the Story
Pal pointed out that gold reacts to financial conditions immediately. Crypto takes about 180 days to catch up.
Right now, gold is at all-time highs. So are silver, copper, and the S&P 500. The US dollar has dropped around 13% in the past year.
Crypto was the worst-performing major asset class during all of this. Pal said the gap isn’t about macro weakness, but about the October damage that still hasn’t healed.
Elections Will Force Action
Midterm elections hit in November 2026. The administration needs the economy to feel stronger before voters head to the polls.
Pal expects aggressive moves: tax breaks, fiscal stimulus, and new rules letting banks use more leverage. On the regulatory side, the Stability Act is moving fast, and a crypto market structure bill is working through the Senate.
What Could Go Wrong
Pal didn’t promise anything. Another government shutdown or tariff issues could delay things.
“Nothing is a certainty. Everything is a probability,” he said.
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FAQs
Major risks include global recessions, tighter crypto regulations, declining liquidity, or a sustained breakdown below key support levels.
Bitcoin price forecasts for 2030 range from $380K to $900K, driven by scarcity, long-term adoption, and expanding institutional participation.
While uncertain, many long-term projections suggest Bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2050 if it becomes a global store of value.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it attractive as an inflation hedge, especially during currency debasement and long-term economic uncertainty.
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