Cardano’s native token ADA has been stuck between $0.80 and $0.95 for the past two months. As of early October 2025, it’s trading around $0.83, far below its 2021 high of nearly $3 and the key $1 level that traders watch closely.
So why isn’t ADA rallying like ETH, XRP, SOL, or even DOGE?
The main reasons come down to cautious investor sentiment as investors stay cautious, waiting for clearer market triggers. While tech upgrades like Ouroboros Leios and Hydra are in progress, slower on-chain activity and pending regulatory decisions are keeping excitement low.
Meanwhile, institutional adoption is also limited, with spot ETF approvals still pending, which adds to the holding pattern.
Profit-taking at resistance levels around $0.90–$1.00 and declining trading volumes are further slowing ADA’s rally.
Further on-chain data shows that big players are not sitting idle. Large ADA wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion coins recently grew their total balance from 4.22 billion to 4.25 billion ADA.
Similarly, mid-sized wallets with 10 to 100 million coins also increased their holdings slightly, adding nearly 70 million ADA in total, worth close to $59 million.
This trend signals that whales are slowly positioning themselves for the future. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that tracks money inflows, has also turned positive at 0.12. While this isn’t strong enough to show heavy buying, it does suggest that capital is trickling back into ADA.
Meanwhile, smaller investors appear less enthusiastic. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which reflects retail buying strength, has been moving lower. This shows that many small traders are not putting fresh money into ADA, leaving whales to dominate the market.
With strong accumulation on one side and weak retail activity on the other, the price remains locked in a triangle pattern without a clear breakout yet.
As of now, Cardano is currently trading around $0.85, continuing the downtrend that began last year. Yet, the long-term chart offers some optimism. After nearly a year of consolidation, ADA is now approaching a key resistance trendline. A break above $0.90 could spark a new rally toward $1.30.
On the other hand, if ADA fails to surpass $0.95, it may pull back toward support near $0.75.
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