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  • Qadir AK
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    Qadir Ak is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the cryptocurrency space.

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Experts Claim 98.7% Chance of Bitcoin ETF Approval; But Why is Wall Street Cautious?

Story Highlights
  • Many experts, including crypto lawyers and investors, predict a 90-99% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by the SEC in January.

  • While bullish on ETF approval, some analysts and institutions remain cautious.

  • Approval would significantly impact digital assets, but denial could trigger worse crashes than before.

In the crypto space, everything or anything is possible; thatโ€™s why odds and predictions carry weight. Yet, when esteemed XRP Attorney John Deaton resonates with investor Mike Alfred’s forecast, suggesting an astonishing 98.7% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, ears perk up across the industry.

What’s this all about? Read on!

Unified Optimism

Representing 75,000 XRP holders, Deaton echoed Alfredโ€™s confidence, citing recent amendments made by major playersโ€”BlackRock, Ark 21Shares, and WisdomTreeโ€”as the majority of them aligning their S-1 filings with a cash redemptions model, signaling a potential breakthrough for the digital asset space.

In a straightforward โ€œAgreedโ€ nod to Alfredโ€™s prediction, Deaton, in his X post, added weight to the mounting optimism. This alignment with industry projections emphasizes the impact of recent amendments, boosting the odds of a green light from the SEC. 

Wall Street Remains Cautious

While Alfred remains confidently bullish on approval before January 10, Wall Street appears cautiously optimistic, reflected in the undervalued January call options for Bitcoin miners. Bloomberg analysts have maintained a steady 90% likelihood for the past two months. Nonetheless, experts increasingly lean toward a green signal as the SECโ€™s critical decision day approaches.

On the higher side, Trader Bob Loukas isnโ€™t mincing words, expressing an unwavering 99.9% certainty in the ETFโ€™s fate.

So Who Do We Believe? 

This week is brimming with anticipation, especially with major players like Ark 21Shares, BlackRock, and WisdomTree diligently tweaking their S-1 filings to embrace cash creation models. While analysts James Seyffart and Scott Johnsson are cautiously skeptical about an immediate approval, Seyffart hints at a potential green light between January 8-10, given the SECโ€™s historical tendency to act just before deadlines, possibly including essential amendments.

The crypto sphere braces for a defining moment, eagerly awaiting the SECโ€™s call on Bitcoin ETFs. If approved, this could herald a game-changing transformation in the realm of digital assets. At the same time, if denied, this could be worse than earlier crypto crashes, as predicted by experts. 

We’re Praying for a Miracle!

As prices of key cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP fell, the crypto market cap fell 2.58% to $1.56 trillion in 24 hours. It will be interesting to see the ETF charm rolling in January. BTC is struggling to maintain the critical level of $42K and is expected to fall by $40K in the coming days as a mark of a short-term correction. Is it a good or bad sign? Tell us.

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