US CPI Report Today (Live) Updates

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes that September CPI and other inflation data came in lower than expected, signaling easing inflation pressures. He predicts this could trigger a new all-time high for Bitcoin ($BTC) within the next 30 days, as lower inflation increases the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and fuels risk-on sentiment across crypto markets.

The September CPI report intensifies the balancing act between economic growth and price stability. With VIX climbing to 18, market volatility has increased. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized data-driven decisions, and persistent high CPI could reduce December rate cut odds to 25 basis points. Looking ahead, October CPI data will be crucial, especially shelter and energy components, as markets anticipate FOMC minutes and global central bank responses from the ECB and BOE. Investors should brace for short-term pullbacks while monitoring jobs data for a fuller economic picture.

The uptick in September CPI reflects global energy volatility and geopolitical tensions, with rebounding oil prices pushing up transportation costs. Sector-wise, household furnishings and operations dipped slightly by 0.1% monthly but remained up 3.9% annually due to supply chain disruptions. Businesses in home goods and airlines face cost pass-through pressures, potentially fueling a cycle of further price hikes. Consumers may feel the squeeze, as high inflation erodes purchasing power despite unemployment holding at 4.2%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annually, staying above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Released during a critical period of monetary policy consideration, the stronger-than-expected reading may force the FOMC to reassess its rate cut plans, which had previously priced in an 85% chance for September. Persistent inflation could reduce the likelihood of future cuts and maintain a hawkish stance from the Fed.

The U.S. September CPI unexpectedly rose 0.2% month-over-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% and signaling renewed inflation pressures. The shelter index was the primary driver, up 0.4% monthly and 3.6% annually, reflecting persistent high rents and owners’ equivalent rent. Additional contributors included airline fares, which surged 3.2%, and the recreation index, up 0.4%, showing resilient consumer spending. This report highlights ongoing price pressures that could influence both consumer behavior and broader economic recovery.

S&P 500 futures surged nearly +1%, reaching new record highs following a cooler-than-expected September CPI report. This CPI release was a rare exception during the U.S. government shutdown, providing markets with fresh data to gauge inflation and Fed policy expectations. The softer inflation reading boosted risk-on sentiment, lifting equities and supporting broader financial markets.

The U.S. September CPI numbers are out, showing headline CPI at 3% YoY and core CPI also at 3% YoY, both slightly below the 3.1% estimates. The softer-than-expected inflation data sparked a surge in Bitcoin ($BTC), which quickly climbed above $112,000, as traders interpreted the report as bullish for risk-on assets and supportive of potential future Fed rate cuts.

The U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM came in slightly below expectations at 0.3%, versus the 0.4% forecast and previous 0.4% reading. This softer-than-expected print is negative for the U.S. dollar, potentially creating upward momentum for gold and other metals as investors rotate into risk-on and safe-haven assets. Traders should watch for short-term volatility in forex and commodities markets following this release.

The U.S. September 2025 Core CPI came in slightly below expectations, signaling easing inflation pressures. Year-over-year, core CPI fell to 3.0%, down from both the previous 3.1% and the forecasted 3.1%. Month-over-month, core CPI rose just 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast and previous 0.3%, marking a modest slowdown. This softer-than-expected reading could strengthen the case for future Fed rate cuts, boost market sentiment, and provide a tailwind for risk assets including equities and cryptocurrencies.

Ahead of the September CPI release, analysts are weighing in on potential market reactions. JP Morgan sees a ~65% chance the S&P 500 ends positive, noting that expected Fed easing on October 29 could offset inflation concerns. Goldman Sachs says the market is already pricing year-end rate cuts, driven by weak labor data rather than CPI, and does not expect the print to be definitive. Meanwhile, Bloomberg strategists warn of asymmetric downside risks if CPI surprises hotter-than-expected and note that data quality doubts could delay the final market reaction. Traders should consider these perspectives when planning positions in equities, bonds, and crypto.

The U.S. September CPI report will be released in just 30 minutes, with expectations for headline CPI at 0.39% MoM (3.1% YoY) and core CPI at 0.30% MoM (3.1% YoY). Market reactions to the core MoM print could vary: a reading above 0.40% may trigger a -1.5% to -2.25% drop in the S&P 500, 0.35–0.40% could see -0.5% to -1.25%, 0.30–0.35% is likely to result in flat to +0.5%, and below 0.30% may spark a +0.75% to +1.5% rally. Traders should watch the release closely, as it may set the short-term tone for equities and risk-on assets, including crypto.

Friday also brings the release of October S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs alongside earnings reports from roughly 10% of S&P 500 firms, spanning tech and finance sectors. These indicators provide insight into economic expansion and corporate resilience. A strong services PMI can bolster confidence in the U.S. economy, while weak manufacturing numbers may stoke recession fears. Historically, such data has impacted crypto, with BTC surging over 5% following softer CPI releases and positive PMI data boosting Ethereum’s DeFi activity.Additionally, strong earnings beats can synergize with positive macro prints, supporting Nasdaq gains and indirectly benefiting crypto majors like BTC and ETH. Traders should watch core CPI and service sector data closely while managing leverage, as these events could set the tone for the Fed’s trajectory and short-term crypto trends.

This Friday, financial markets will focus on key U.S. economic indicators: September CPI inflation and October Consumer Sentiment. These releases will provide insights into inflation trends and consumer confidence, both of which directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
If CPI shows continued cooling, it could reinforce rate-cut expectations, potentially driving funds into high-risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins. Conversely, hotter-than-expected CPI could fuel concerns of prolonged high rates, increasing volatility. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment Index serves as a gauge of consumer confidence. A reading below forecasts could indicate an economic slowdown, reducing risk appetite and triggering short-term sell-offs across stocks and crypto markets. Traders should closely monitor these early indicators to position effectively ahead of potential market swings.

Ethereum ($ETH) is showing interesting price action, similar to Bitcoin, with a local bounce from recent lows. Currently, ETH appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle/compression pattern, signaling indecision in the market. With today’s CPI data set to release, traders are watching closely for a breakout or breakdown, as prolonged compression often leads to an explosive move once the market chooses a direction.

Bitcoin ($BTC) options traders are holding back as the market waits for the next macro catalyst. Following the data gap caused by the U.S. government shutdown, all eyes are on today’s CPI release, which is expected to recalibrate risk and volatility. Until the report drops, volatility remains elevated and sentiment stays cautious, with traders carefully positioning themselves ahead of potential market-moving developments.

Bitcoin ($BTC) price action remains relatively slow, forming a steady crab pattern ahead of today’s CPI release. Perpetual contracts are pushing, but spot buyers continue to sell into highs, keeping momentum muted. If BTC breaks below the rising wedge trendline, it could test the weekly open. Conversely, any sustained momentum toward the weekly high may set the stage for a test of $115K–$116K, making the CPI release a key catalyst for short-term price action.

Today is a crucial day for crypto holders as the U.S. CPI report drops at 8:30 a.m. ET, potentially moving the entire market. The Fed’s policy decisions hinge on unemployment and inflation, making this data critical. Expectations are at 3.1%, and the scenarios are clear:

• Above 3.1%: Inflation is heating, tariffs and trade tensions push prices higher, and the Fed may stay cautious — fewer rate cuts, tighter liquidity, slower growth.

• Around 3.1%: Neutral outcome, markets remain range-bound with limited short-term moves.

• Below 3.1%: Inflation is cooling naturally, paving the way to end QT, increase liquidity, lower yields, and a weaker dollar. This scenario boosts the odds of more rate cuts, setting the stage for a strong move in Bitcoin and altcoins.

Traders should watch closely, as today’s print could define the next major trend in crypto markets.

Markets are lining up for a potentially bullish period in crypto. JP Morgan predicts the Fed will end QT at next week’s FOMC meeting, while tomorrow’s CPI report is expected to be tame. Adding fuel, CZ was pardoned by the U.S. government, and bullish earnings reports are due by month-end. With the anticipated Trump–Xi trade deal and gold showing a local top, liquidity is likely to flow into Bitcoin (BTC). Analysts suggest that these combined catalysts could trigger a price discovery breakout, setting the stage for a multi-month or quarterly crypto rally

The U.S. CPI report will be released today at 8:30 a.m. ET, with expectations at 3.1%, up from 2.9% last month. This is the first major economic release since the U.S. government shutdown, making it a key event for markets and the Federal Reserve ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. October rate cut odds currently stand at 98%, but a CPI print of 3.1% or higher could reduce the likelihood of cuts. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI would be seen as bullish, potentially boosting equities, crypto, and other risk-on assets.

The crypto market edged higher ahead of the U.S. inflation data release, with Bitcoin (BTC) up 1.3% in the past 24 hours to $111,000 and Ethereum (ETH) rising 1.6% to $2,890. The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 32, indicating lingering fear among investors despite the recent price uptick. Markets are now focused on the September CPI report, expected to show a 0.4% monthly increase in inflation, a key indicator that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy move and influence short-term crypto volatility.

The U.S. CPI data will be released today at 8:30 a.m. ET, with market expectations at 3.1%, up from 2.9% last month. Rising inflation isn’t an encouraging sign, but with the recent government shutdown, markets are cautiously hoping for a softer print. Any figure below expectations could strengthen the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially sparking optimism across risk assets like stocks and crypto. Traders should brace for volatility as today’s report could shape the Fed’s tone in the weeks ahead.

Many traders underestimate the impact of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it’s one of the most important catalysts in the market. A higher CPI means rising inflation, which typically leads to market drops, while a lower CPI signals easing inflation, often triggering short-term pumps in Bitcoin and stocks. However, it’s crucial to remember that CPI-driven rallies are usually short-lived. A “good” CPI print doesn’t guarantee a multi-month Bitcoin rally or a parabolic Q4 so traders should stay realistic and avoid getting caught in the hype.

While many traders seem uncertain, the current Bitcoin ($BTC) price action appears crystal clear. Two plausible scenarios are unfolding: Scenario 1, BTC pushes higher into the CPI release, experiences a short-term flush, and then continues upward into the FOMC meeting. Scenario 2, BTC rallies into CPI, forms a local top, and then dumps into FOMC. The key lies in reacting to market pivots with precision. As always, disciplined trading and timing are what separate consistent analysts from the crowd and that’s why detailed strategies remain behind closed doors.

With the CPI report due today and the FOMC meeting just days away, traders are bracing for volatility while keeping a data-driven approach. Historically, CPI releases often mark local tops, while FOMC events tend to signal market bottoms. One trader notes a plan to ride a short-term pump following CPI exiting before a possible post-FOMC flush to re-enter at lower levels. While Bitcoin ($BTC) appears stronger in the short term, the broader view remains bullish on altcoins heading into the year’s close.

The crypto market has been losing momentum amid ongoing ETF-related selling pressure, with retail investors facing losses and showing reduced participation. As sentiment remains cautious, traders are eyeing today’s U.S. CPI data release, which is expected to bring heightened volatility. Before taking any new positions, it’s crucial to use proper stop-loss levels and set clear profit targets to navigate potential sharp price swings.

Crypto traders are positioning ahead of a volatile few weeks, with many — including our group — accumulating Bitcoin ($BTC) and select altcoins. Historically, CPI days often trigger a Friday pump, followed by sideways or downward movement in the days leading up to the FOMC meeting. The FOMC day itself tends to bring a relief pump, while the days after usually see a cooling-off period. To top it off, the anticipated Trump–Xi trade deal at month’s end could provide another bullish push across risk assets, adding more fuel to the market narrative.

Gold is showing strong bearish momentum after completing a short-term liquidity grab, with an entry zone between $4,070–$4,074 and a target near $3,955. The overall market bias remains bearish as traders await today’s U.S. CPI report, which is expected to bring high volatility. Prices may retest the entry zone before continuing lower, so patience and confirmation are key. If the CPI data comes in strong for the U.S. dollar, gold could extend its decline toward the $3,955 target zone.

Ethereum ($ETH) has major liquidity clusters above the $4,200 level, making it a prime candidate for a short squeeze. Today’s U.S. CPI data and next week’s FOMC meeting are key events that could move markets, while the expected U.S.-China trade deal as Trump meets Xi adds another potential catalyst. Market sentiment has shifted from bullish in early October to largely bearish now, which could ironically increase upward pressure if these events spark fresh buying in Ethereum. Traders should watch $ETH closely in the coming days.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September will be released today at 8:30 a.m. ET, with market expectations at 3.1%, up from last month’s 2.9%. If CPI exceeds 3.1%, it could be bearish for markets, marking the highest inflation since June 2024. A CPI in line at 3.1% would still be somewhat bearish, as the 0.2% monthly increase (2.4% annualized) is above the Fed’s 2% target, potentially prompting a hawkish stance from Powell. On the other hand, a CPI below 3.1% would be ideal for risk-on assets, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts and driving liquidity into stocks, crypto, and other riskier investments, making tomorrow’s report a key market mover.