US CPI Data Released [LIVE] :U.S Inflation Rate Comes in at 2.9%, as Expected

The latest U.S. CPI data came in at 2.9% year-over-year, exactly as expected and slightly higher than last month’s 2.7%. The steady print signals that inflation is not cooling further, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of its September 17th meeting.

Analysts say this likely means a smaller or slower rate cut compared to earlier hopes, with markets staying cautious until the Fed clarifies its policy path. Traders now watch whether Powell confirms just 25bps or opens the door to something larger later this year.

The U.S. CPI print came in at 2.9% YoY, right in line with expectations, confirming the ongoing disinflation trend. However, a surprise uptick in jobless claims rattled markets and forced traders to reassess the timing of upcoming Fed rate cuts.

Bitcoin felt the shock almost instantly, dropping from above $114K to $113,500 within minutes. With macro signals sending mixed messages, the market has entered a new wave of turbulence — and crypto is reacting faster than ever.

The latest U.S. CPI data came in right on target — 2.9% YoY for headline inflation and 3.1% YoY for core. Bitcoin initially rallied ahead of the release but has since slipped, now trading near $113,990.

This move mirrors the past three CPI prints, where BTC pumped before the data and dumped right after. Adding to the volatility backdrop are the ongoing Powell vs. Trump tensions and shifting Fed rate cut bets, keeping traders on edge.

The latest U.S. data shows a split signal for the Federal Reserve. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, exactly in line with expectations, while headline CPI climbed 0.4%, slightly hotter than the 0.3% forecast. On a yearly basis, CPI rose 2.9%, matching estimates but ticking up from July’s 2.7%.

At the same time, jobless claims surged to 263K, well above the 235K expected, suggesting a cooling labor market. The combination of sticky inflation and weakening jobs leaves the Fed walking a tightrope — hawkish pressure from prices, but dovish signals from employment.

Market reaction was clear: the U.S. dollar traded mixed to slightly bearish, while stocks, bonds, and crypto (BTC, ETH) all turned short-term bullish on hopes of easing ahead.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 2.9% year-over-year, perfectly in line with market forecasts. The print matched expectations and confirmed a modest uptick from July’s 2.7% reading, keeping traders focused on how the Federal Reserve will shape its next rate decision.

While all eyes are on today’s U.S. CPI release, crypto markets may already be signaling a shift. Bitcoin ($BTC) has climbed back above $113.5K, breaking out of its month-long downtrend and showing the strongest momentum in six weeks. Combined with bullish PPI data and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut, the setup points to a potential new leg higher for crypto regardless of today’s CPI print.

The Avalanche Foundation is reportedly preparing a $1 billion fundraising push to set up two U.S.-based crypto treasury firms. Each entity would seek to raise $500 million, with the funds directed toward purchasing discounted AVAX tokens. The move signals a bold effort to reinforce Avalanche’s ecosystem and expand its token base, positioning the network for long-term growth.

Today’s U.S. CPI release is one of the most important events before the Federal Reserve’s next move, and crude oil may hold the key. Historically, the relationship between CPI and crude prices has been a reliable guide. With crude oil falling -8.5% in August, there’s a chance CPI could come in lower than expected.

Official forecasts call for CPI to rise from 2.7% to 2.9% YoY, but that also raises the risk of a miss. Even if CPI prints at 2.9%, the dollar may not rally much, since that figure is already priced in. Importantly, the dollar bottomed in September 2024 after the Fed’s first cut, and until the Fed makes its next move, a weak USD remains a risk — followed by a possible reversal once cuts begin.

For August, the median forecast of 18 analysts sees core CPI rising 0.32%, keeping the 12-month rate steady at 3.1%. Estimates range from a low of 0.26% to a high of 0.36%. Meanwhile, the median headline CPI estimate is +0.36%, which would lift the annual rate to 2.9%, up from 2.3% in April.

The U.S. inflation rate is at 2.7% YoY, with today’s CPI release expected to rise to 2.9%. While the Federal Reserve continues to target a 2.0% inflation rate, achieving that looks increasingly difficult with another rate cut likely at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Still, inflation has cooled sharply from its 2022 peak, leaving today’s report as a crucial signal for markets and Bitcoin.

The U.S. will release CPI and Core CPI data today at 8:30 AM ET, with expectations at 2.9% and 3.1% respectively. This release carries extra weight as the economy is flashing signs of strain — payrolls were revised down by a record 911,000 jobs, unemployment has risen to 4.3%, and wholesale inflation (PPI) cooled well below forecasts.

Together, these point to slowing growth and consumer pressure, leaving CPI as the key factor that will guide the Federal Reserve’s next move. If CPI comes in above expectations, the Fed is likely to stay cautious with just a 25bps cut; an in-line reading confirms a 25bps September cut as the base case, but if CPI falls below expectations, it could trigger a 50bps cut this month and set the stage for multiple cuts this year, the most bullish outcome for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Bitcoin’s current price action is following a familiar script. In the last three CPI releases, BTC rallied ahead of the data, only to dump immediately after the numbers dropped. Now, with today’s CPI release just hours away, the same setup is playing out again. BTC has already rallied in anticipation, raising fears that another post-CPI sell-off could be next.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report drops today at 8:30 AM ET, and traders are bracing for impact.

Expectations are set at 2.9%:

• If CPI < 2.9% → Bitcoin and altcoins could surge sharply.
• If CPI = 2.9% → A correction is likely, since last month’s CPI stood at 2.7%.
• If CPI > 2.9% → Markets may face heavy pressure.

Adding fuel to the suspense, yesterday’s PPI data came in much lower than expected, sparking hope of a possible 50 bps rate cut this month.

The next few hours will decide whether Bitcoin rides higher—or takes another hit.

Us CPI Data Will Be Released Today at 8:30 AM ET.