SEC Delays XRP ETF Decision to May 2025: What Are the Approval Odds?

The SEC is once again in the spotlight as it reviews applications for new spot crypto ETFs. After approving Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the race is now on to see which cryptocurrency will be next – and XRP is a strong contender. Major financial firms, including Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, Grayscale, and WisdomTree, are all vying for a chance to launch the first XRP ETF.

It has started reviewing with Grayscale’s application on February 14, which began a 240-day review period. Other filings from WisdomTree, Canary Capital, and CoinShares are also under review and are now open for public comments. 

However, the SEC has delayed its decision on Grayscale’s XRP ETF application, along with several other crypto spot ETFs, including those for Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin. Investors will have to wait until May 2025 for updates on whether these ETFs will be approved, rejected, or further delayed. 

May 2025: A Key Moment for XRP ETFs

The SEC has set May 22, 2025, as the deadline for deciding on XRP ETF filings from Canary, Bitwise, and Grayscale. Market analysts believe that multiple XRP ETFs could be approved at that time, making XRP easier for mainstream investors to buy. Approval would allow investors to purchase XRP through traditional stock accounts without needing crypto wallets or dealing with complex regulations.

While it could take more than a year for this to impact XRP’s price significantly, the news is expected to trigger a short-term price boost.

The Odds Look Good

Bloomberg analysts estimate a 65% chance that the SEC will approve XRP ETFs in 2025. Meanwhile, prediction market Polymarket places the odds even higher at 72%, showing strong confidence in a favorable outcome.

Crypto analyst James Seyffart noted that the SEC’s delay on altcoin ETFs, including those for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, is a routine move. He pointed out that Paul Atkins has not yet been confirmed as SEC Chair, which may be a factor. However, Seyffart said the delay does not reduce the likelihood of approval, as the final deadlines for these ETFs extend until October 2025.

Ripple Case and Its Influence on XRP ETFs

Seyffart also highlighted that Paul Atkins’ potential confirmation as SEC Chair could affect the ongoing SEC appeal in the Ripple case. The SEC filed its appeal on January 15, challenging a previous ruling on XRP sales. Ripple’s response is due by April 16. If Atkins is confirmed before this deadline, he and other SEC officials could push to withdraw the appeal.

Pro-crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli believes the Ripple case could be settled before April 16, 2025. He speculates that a deal may already be in progress behind the scenes. Another legal expert, James Murphy, suggested that ongoing negotiations could delay the withdrawal of the appeal, which might open the door for XRP spot ETFs to be approved.

The pieces are falling into place, but whether XRP ETFs become reality depends on the SEC’s next move.

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