Key US Economic Events Could Trigger a Massive Crypto Market Sell-Off

This week could be pivotal for the crypto market as three major U.S. economic indicators come into play: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, jobless claims data, and the PCE inflation index. These events may drive significant volatility across Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies.

Let’s break down what’s at stake.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview: Bearish Sentiment Prevails

The crypto market is currently under pressure, with a 2.6% decline in total market cap over the past 24 hours. Here’s a quick look at weekly performance:

• Bitcoin: down 4.9%
  
• Ethereum: down 14%
  
• XRP: down 8.3%
  
• BNB: down 4.8%
  
• Solana: down 14.7%
  
• Cardano: down 15.7%
  
• Dogecoin: down 14%
  
• Tron: down 1.6%
  
• Hyperliquid: down 19.8%
  
• Stellar: down 11.7%
  
• Pi Coin: down 16.3%
  

The U.S. Economic Surprise Index—which measures whether economic data beats or misses expectations—is currently the most negative it has been in 2025. A weakening index often signals growing uncertainty, which can reduce risk appetite and impact crypto demand.

Jerome Powell’s Testimony: Key Event for Bitcoin

On June 24, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on U.S. economic policy, employment, and inflation. His speech could directly impact crypto prices.

• A hawkish tone (signaling tight monetary policy) may hurt Bitcoin and boost the dollar
  
• A dovish tone (signaling easing policy) may support Bitcoin and weaken the dollar
  
• A neutral stance may cause short-term volatility
  

In the past 14 days, Bitcoin has already dropped 3.5%, including a 0.8% decline in the last 24 hours, now hovering around $101,886.

Geopolitical concerns are also rising. Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil supply route. Any escalation could impact global markets and influence Federal Reserve decisions.

Jobless Claims: Another Market Trigger

Last week, initial U.S. jobless claims declined from 250,000 to 245,000. This week, forecasts expect a slight increase to 247,000, supported by TEForecast models.

• Higher jobless claims may signal economic weakness and trigger a positive reaction in Bitcoin.
  
• Lower-than-expected claims may indicate economic strength and pressure risk assets like crypto.

PCE Inflation Index: The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is due on June 27. This is the Fed’s key inflation gauge.

• In April, the PCE fell from 2.3% to 2.1%
  
• The current consensus expects a rise back to 2.3%
  
• TEForecast, however, estimates a smaller rise to 2.2%
  

If PCE inflation beats expectations (above 2.3%), the Fed may delay rate cuts. This could strengthen the U.S. dollar and reduce investor interest in Bitcoin, leading to a further price drop.

Final Thoughts

This week’s market direction will depend on how these three factors unfold. Powell’s tone, jobless claims, and inflation figures will decide whether Bitcoin can regain momentum or face another sell-off.

Stay tuned — volatility is almost guaranteed.

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