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- Zafar Naik
Zafar Naik
- Reviewed by:
Qadir AKQadir Ak is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the cryptocurrency space.
- Dec 12, 2025 11:58 UTC
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BOJ Interest Rate Hike Expected, Raising New Risks for Global Markets
Japan likely to raise rates to 0.75%, first hike since Jan 2025, sparking global bond moves and yen carry trade concerns.
BOJ signals shift from ultra-low rates; investors watch for capital flows as inflation stays above 2% target.
Japan is edging toward a moment it hasn’t seen in nearly three decades.
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate to 0.75% at its December 18-19 meeting, a 25-basis-point move that would take borrowing costs towards levels last seen in the mid-1990s. The hike itself is no longer the surprise as analysts say markets have mostly priced it in.
The bigger question is how far Japan is willing to go and what that means for the rest of the world.
A Clear Signal From the BOJ
Governor Kazuo Ueda has been open on the direction. Sources say the rate hike proposal is likely to gain majority support from the BOJ’s nine-member policy board, with no clear opposition so far.
This would be the first hike since January 2025 and another step away from Japan’s long-standing ultra-low rate policy. Inflation has stayed above the central bank’s 2% target for more than three years, giving policymakers room to tighten without calling it restrictive.
Bond Yields Are Moving Fast
After Ueda’s recent comments, Japan’s two-year government bond yield hit a 17-year high, while the 10-year yield climbed close to 2%. Those moves didn’t stay local. U.S. Treasury yields rose, German Bund yields followed, and the yen briefly strengthened against the dollar.
Fidelity’s Mike Riddell summed it up: “JGB sell-offs really matter for global bond markets.”
Yen Carry Trade Back In Focus
The real concern is the yen carry trade.
For years, investors borrowed cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets overseas. Higher Japanese rates make that strategy less attractive and raise the risk of capital flowing back home.
A similar BOJ move in July 2024 was followed by Japan’s second-worst one-day stock market crash, tied to fears of carry trade unwinding.
Calm for Now, But All Are Watching
Not everyone expects panic. Some fund managers point out that pension funds are slow to change allocations, and speculative yen positions are already elevated.
Still, Japan is one of the world’s largest creditors. If its capital starts returning home, global markets, including risk assets like crypto, will feel it.
For now, traders aren’t reacting to the hike itself but are watching what comes after.
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FAQs
Japan is hiking because inflation has stayed above 2% for years, giving the BOJ confidence to move away from decades of ultra-low rates.
Higher JGB yields often pull up U.S. and European yields as investors rebalance, making borrowing costlier worldwide.
A rate jump cuts the profit from borrowing yen cheaply, raising the risk of investors unwinding positions and moving funds back to Japan.
Yes. Even a small rate shift can trigger fast yen swings if traders expect more hikes, affecting imports, exports, and global currency flows.
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