FOMC Meeting Today: Fed Expected to Hike Rates 25 Bps – Will Bitcoin Drop Again?

Crypto markets are already under pressure ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, with Bitcoin trading below $75,000. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, a move that is mostly priced in. 

Now, traders are watching Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments for clues on future rate hikes and whether another wave of selling could hit Bitcoin.

Fed Expected to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its decision at 2:00 PM EDT, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.

Markets are pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, which would move the federal funds rate from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This would be the Fed’s first rate hike in three years.

However, traders are already looking beyond today’s decision. They are watching Warsh’s comments for clues about future rate hikes. 

The markets have shifted from expecting two hikes to pricing in at least three by June 2027. 

Thus, former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida warned that another hike could follow.

“If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones. This is certainly not one and done.”

CLARITY Act Failure Adds More Pressure

The Fed’s decision comes as the crypto market deals with another setback. On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, weakening a major regulatory catalyst for the market.

Even after a last-minute substitute text included 126 bipartisan changes, lawmakers could not overcome major political and ideological differences. Prediction markets now put the bill’s 2026 passage odds at around 12%.

Following the setback, the total crypto market fell more than 3%, while Bitcoin dropped below $75,000. The decline also triggered around $770 million in liquidations, adding more selling pressure from leveraged long positions.

Bitcoin Could Face More Selling If Warsh Sounds Hawkish

The biggest risk for crypto may not be the 25-basis-point increase itself because traders have already priced it in.

Instead, Bitcoin could face more selling if Warsh signals that more hikes are coming or the Fed’s updated projections point to tighter policy for longer. 

Such a signal could strengthen the dollar, lift bond yields, and push investors away from riskier assets.

Bitcoin has already fallen below $76,000, now trading around $75,860.