Bitcoin is trading near $85,416, down 0.4%, as it consolidates above $83,000. Swissblock said another push toward $87,500 to $90,000 is still possible, but each attempt is arriving with less force. The upside structure survives, though the internal engine is gradually losing intensity. A destabilizing Risk Index would signal that the slowdown is turning into a regime change. Glassnode data shows large entities are back in profit. Small wallets stayed profitable throughout, holding well above their $48,000 cost basis at the June low, while sharks and whales slipped underwater. In the 2022 bear market, price fell below every group’s cost basis.
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