FOMC Meeting Today [LIVE] Updates

Bitcoin surged today, climbing above $123,000 after dipping to an intraday low of $121,191. The rebound followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s welcome remarks, in which he did not comment on monetary policy, leaving markets to maintain expectations for a rate cut this October. Investors interpreted Powell’s silence as neutral-to-dovish, supporting crypto sentiment and fueling the short-term Bitcoin price recovery, as traders continue to price in favorable conditions for risk assets.

With Fed Chair Powell silent in his last scheduled speech before next week’s FOMC blackout, markets appear to interpret this as implicit endorsement of current pricing, which anticipates two more rate cuts in 2025. According to CME FedWatch, an October cut is 93% priced, with the probability of two additional cuts at 80% and no chance of three. Overall, 2025 rate cuts are priced at 45 bps, slightly down from post-FOMC highs, while 2026 pricing has eased to 108 bps through December, reflecting market caution.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s non-commentary reinforces the current market outlook, with traders pricing in a ~93% chance of an October rate cut and two more by year-end. However, FOMC minutes flagged persistent inflation risks, indicating that future cuts depend on softer economic data. Historical trends show that expected easing is often scaled back if employment remains strong. While markets price in optimism, xAI models suggest a slower disinflation trajectory, keeping monetary policy decisions under close watch.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year ending September 30 is expected to be slightly lower than earlier estimates, despite remaining at a record-high 6.5% of GDP. Speaking at the Fed’s community banking conference in Washington, D.C., Bessent credited trade policies, tax reforms, and deregulation for the improvement, highlighting Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill as a notable fiscal success. The announcement comes amid limited official data due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Global equities rebounded to record highs despite ongoing U.S. political uncertainty, with the S&P 500 up 0.58% and the Nasdaq rising 1.12%, according to Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid. The government shutdown has paused economic data releases, leaving markets focused on political developments, including persistent disagreements over healthcare subsidies. Investors are now turning attention to speeches from Federal Reserve members, which may provide guidance amid the data void and ongoing uncertainty.

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Asia emerged as the tipping point for USD bullishness, revealing a misjudgment in post-FOMC expectations. FX traders had anticipated macro outcomes aligned with major financial institutions, including the Fed’s interest rate path, but markets now see the rest of the world cutting rates faster than the Fed, partly due to Trump’s tariffs. Money markets price a 1% Fed cut by September 2026, yet recent Asian central bank meetings underscore that global easing may outpace U.S. policy, supporting a stronger dollar trajectory.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% in September 2025, with markets pricing in a possible additional cut at the October 28–29 FOMC meeting, though nothing is confirmed. The Fed shows no signs of new QE, continuing its balance sheet runoff. Speculative forecasts for Bitcoin hitting $150K–$200K and massive altcoin gains are circulating, but analysts caution that bull runs depend on multiple factors, including macro policy, liquidity, and investor sentiment, making outcomes uncertain

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that a fiscal budget statement will follow the conclusion of the ongoing government shutdown. The statement is expected to outline fiscal policy, tax reforms, and spending controls, providing clarity amid a suspended federal workforce of 750,000 and broader economic uncertainty. Markets anticipate that improved visibility could influence interest rate expectations, the bond yield curve, and potentially support risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. Investors are watching for guidance on infrastructure, trade, and deficit management.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s next policy signal will come at the October 29 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing in ~99% probability of a 25 bp rate cut. With key economic data paused due to the government shutdown, the Fed is increasingly relying on high-frequency labor and spending proxies to guide decisions. Investors are watching closely, as Powell’s remarks will help clarify the Fed’s reaction function and set expectations for further monetary easing amid limited official data.

Federal Reserve minutes from the September FOMC meeting underscore a shift toward supporting employment over inflation concerns. Following a 25 bps cut to 4.00%–4.25%, the committee is split on next steps, with a 10–9 majority expecting two additional cuts in 2025. The government shutdown has delayed critical data, increasing uncertainty around policy timing. Investors will be watching upcoming CPI releases on October 15 and the October and December FOMC meetings to gauge the depth and pace of further rate reductions.

The latest FOMC minutes show the Fed is prepared for further easing in 2025 as employment concerns take center stage. The September vote was 11–1, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 50 bps cut. While a narrow majority supports two additional cuts this year, others prefer a slower pace. The ongoing government shutdown has delayed economic reports like CPI and jobs data, reducing policymakers’ visibility and leaving markets cautious ahead of upcoming October and December meetings.

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The Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 FOMC minutes indicate a dovish tilt, with a 25 bps policy rate cut to 4.00%–4.25%, marking the first reduction of 2025. Officials cited rising labor market risks as the primary driver, outweighing persistent inflation concerns. The minutes reveal a narrow split on future cuts, with 10 of 19 participants expecting two more reductions this year. The government shutdown has delayed key data, leaving markets to rely on alternative indicators until official releases resume.

The latest Federal Reserve minutes indicate that the Fed is prepared to reduce interest rates further before the end of the year. This dovish stance has been positively received by the cryptocurrency market, driving renewed investor confidence. As a result, Bitcoin’s price has surged, reflecting the market’s anticipation of lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity, which typically support risk assets and crypto investments.

September proved to be a transitional month for financial markets, marked by heightened volatility and notable moves in risk assets. Investor sentiment was largely shaped by US Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, which set expectations for interest rate adjustments. At the same time, markets continued adapting to the evolving trade landscape, with higher tariffs influencing economic activity and investment strategies. Together, these factors created an environment of uncertainty and active repositioning across equities, bonds, and crypto markets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stayed silent on monetary policy during his October 9 remarks, avoiding unnecessary volatility amid the government shutdown’s data freeze. For crypto markets, this may disappoint traders hoping for rate cut signals as hinted in recent FOMC minutes, but it also prevents hawkish surprises. Overall, Powell’s remarks sustain uncertainty, leaving investors to interpret policy direction based on prior guidance, with market reactions depending on individual risk appetite and outlook.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the Community Bank Conference on October 9, 2025, but offered no comments on interest rates or the broader economy. Market participants noted that his speech did not change expectations for a potential rate cut later this year, leaving traders to continue pricing in modest easing based on prior FOMC signals. The focus remained on community banks’ role in local economies rather than monetary policy guidance.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the Community Bank Conference on October 9, 2025, emphasizing the critical role community banks play in local economies. Speaking remotely, Powell noted that their close ties to customers allow for better understanding of economic conditions and tailored financial services. He praised their importance to the financial system and reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to supporting community banks through tailored supervision, reducing unnecessary burdens while ensuring safety and soundness.

Michelle Bowman, Federal Reserve Vice Chair, set a measured tone in her opening remarks at the October 9 FOMC meeting. She reviewed the Fed’s post-2023 tightening cycle, highlighting that current data supports policy normalization without aggressive moves. Markets viewed the address as dovish, reinforcing expectations for two modest 25 bps rate cuts in 2025. Bowman cautioned on potential geopolitical and supply chain risks but emphasized a data-driven approach, bolstering confidence in U.S. growth and supporting risk assets like equities and crypto.

In her October 9 FOMC opening remarks, Michelle Bowman emphasized that the Fed’s monetary policy framework remains data-dependent. She pointed to a cooling but stable labor market and inflation gradually returning to the 2% target, providing leeway for policy adjustments. The speech reinforced expectations for modest 25 bp rate cuts later this year, contrasting the September 50 bp cut. Bowman’s comments also touched on bank supervision optimizations, which aim to support credit flow and market stability amid global uncertainties.

The September 17 FOMC Minutes reveal a dovish Fed stance, suggesting two more rate cuts in 2025—likely one in October and another possibly in December—unless inflation rises. Officials are prioritizing the labor market over inflation, citing softer recent payroll data. Balance sheet reduction continues, with ample liquidity remaining, but no QE is planned. This is positive for risk assets and crypto, especially Bitcoin ($BTC), which is consolidating between $117,500–$123,000 ahead of Powell’s 8:30 AM EST speech.

The latest Fed Minutes aligned with earlier market expectations, showing a dovish stance amid softening labor market conditions. Key takeaways:

• Most officials see it likely appropriate to ease policy further this year.

• Most officials see it likely appropriate to ease policy further this year.

• Downside employment risks have risen.

• No urgency indicated to alter balance sheet runoff.

The Fed continues to view inflation as largely transitory, with tariff-related price shocks posing limited concern. Powell’s upcoming speech is expected to echo this consistent message, reinforcing a potential October rate cut.

The latest Fed Minutes reveal that most FOMC members saw inflation risks rising and supported a 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the meeting. Only one member considered a 0.50 percentage point cut feasible. This reflects a cautious approach, balancing the need to ease policy with concerns about persistent inflation pressures in the economy.

$BTC traders are on alert as Jerome Powell’s pre-recorded speech is set to release in a few hours. While the speech won’t announce an official rate decision, high market expectations mean that even subtle hints could spark significant volatility. Some participants may already know the content, adding to uncertainty. Investors should prepare for rapid market reactions, as Powell’s comments could trigger panic or rallies in the current sensitive environment.

With the government shutdown halting economic data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow is now the only official market signal. Traders must watch closely, as every word will be scrutinized for hints on rate cuts. The Fed’s independence and lack of alternative data are leaving markets highly sensitive, with extreme volatility expected. Investors are urged to stay alert and avoid being caught flat-footed amid this rare data blackout.

Analysts warn that Donald Trump could gain control of U.S. monetary policy with just four of seven votes on the Fed’s Board of Governors, allowing him to influence leadership across all 12 district banks. In February 2026, all district presidents are up for reappointment, giving Trump potential power to reshape the FOMC. As @CryptoHayes notes, this could drive a “debasement trade” where looser policy and rate cuts fuel growth, lifting nominal assets and Bitcoin.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak today at 8:30 AM EST, just ahead of the market open. Investors are watching closely, as his remarks could set the tone for the next potential rate cut expected later this month. Markets are bracing for heightened volatility, with traders seeking clues on the Fed’s policy direction amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

The crypto market is rebounding after a recent correction, with traders pricing in Fed rate cuts amid signs of cooling inflation. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded $3.19 billion in inflows this week, reflecting renewed investor confidence.

$BTC: $122,124 (+0.56%)

$ETH: $4,436 (−0.27%)

Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 70 (Greed), the total market cap stands at $4.43 trillion, and liquidations reached $361 million.

Bitcoin slipped below key support levels as the US dollar strengthened ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The broader crypto market retreated after a week of robust ETF inflows, with traders closely watching Powell’s remarks for guidance on future monetary policy amid data gaps caused by the government shutdown. Market participants remain cautious, balancing optimism from inflows with short-term volatility risks.

Rate-cut bets now reflect a 90% probability of a 25 bps decrease at the October 29 FOMC meeting, according to Polymarket. Despite recent data delays and reporting gaps, these bets indicate strong market confidence in the Fed’s easing path amid ongoing fiscal uncertainty. Investors continue to price in a supportive monetary policy stance, signaling faith in continued rate cuts to bolster the economy.

All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at 8:30 AM EST ahead of market open. His remarks could have a major impact on markets, as investors watch for signals regarding the next rate cut expected later this month. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility across equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies in response to any policy guidance.

The Federal Reserve’s September 16–17, 2025, FOMC minutes showed that real GDP growth slowed and the labor market softened in H1, while core PCE inflation stayed elevated. Most officials viewed modest policy easing as appropriate, signaling further rate cuts this year. Participants also highlighted persistent upside inflation risks alongside growing downside risks to employment, reflecting a cautious balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a key speech today at 8:30 AM ET. Traders should brace for high market volatility, as his comments on monetary policy, interest rates, or economic outlook could significantly impact equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. Market participants are closely watching for any signals on future rate adjustments or policy shifts.