Crypto Market Awaits Fed Interest Rates: What to Expect on March 19?

The Federal Reserve is about to make its next major policy announcement. On March 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reveal its decision, and most experts agree that interest rates will remain unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99% chance the Fed will hold rates steady.

This decision is important as policymakers try to balance slowing economic growth with the ongoing challenge of inflation. They also have to consider outside factors, including political events. One key concern is the uncertainty surrounding President Trump, as political shifts or instability could impact the economy.

Stock Market Drops to a Six-Month Low

Investor confidence has taken a hit, with the stock market falling to its lowest point in six months. Worries about slowing economic growth and the effects of tariffs have shaken the market. Adding to the pressure, Monday’s release of February retail sales data will set the tone for the week’s economic reports.

Investors Expect Rate Cuts in 2025

The recent market sell-off has raised concerns about weakening economic data, leading investors to predict the Fed will cut interest rates three times in 2025. However, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target, and new tariffs and policies could push prices even higher. Because of this, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged for now.

What the Fed’s Projections Will Reveal

A major focus will be the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the “dot plot” – a chart showing where policymakers think interest rates will go. Investors will also listen closely to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during his press conference for any signals about future decisions.

When the Fed last updated its dot plot in December, it estimated that interest rates would end 2025 between 3.75 and 4 percent. This suggests two small rate cuts this year, one less than what investors expect.

Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, expects the Fed to emphasize “patience” due to ongoing fiscal uncertainty. He thinks Chair Powell will be cautiously optimistic about the economy but will point out the uncertain outlook because of high policy uncertainty.

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Rate Cuts Could Begin in June, But the Outlook Is Unclear

Short-term market forecasts suggest the Fed may start cutting rates in June, with three total cuts expected by the end of the year. However, the likelihood of a third cut in December has dropped due to mixed signals—slower growth from falling consumer confidence but rising inflation expectations.

The Fed has said it will act if unemployment rises but remains focused on keeping inflation under control.

What to Expect Next Week

For now, the Fed is expected to keep rates steady at 4.25 to 4.50 percent next week, with no cuts likely in May. Investors will be watching closely as the Fed updates its projections for inflation, unemployment, and interest rates on March 18. In December, the central bank forecasted two rate cuts for 2025, but whether that remains the case is still uncertain.

For now, stability prevails, but the coming months will reveal whether that can last.

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