Can Ethereum Rally If US ISM Moves Toward 60?

Ethereum is facing an awkward setup as US ISM PMI data lands at 54.5. The reading marks the ninth consecutive print above 52, keeping the US economy in expansion territory while raising a bigger question for the Federal Reserve.

Strong economic data isn’t necessarily comfortable for the Fed. Higher inflation expectations can complicate the rate path, leaving policymakers with an unpleasant choice: hold rates and wait, or hike and risk hurting growth.

US ISM PMI Keeps the Fed In A Bind

The latest ISM PMI came slightly below the 54.8 forecast and the previous 54.6 reading. Still, 54.5 remains above 52, extending the expansion streak.

That creates a tricky backdrop. Holding rates could push yields higher if markets believe inflation isn’t disappearing soon. Raising rates, meanwhile, could weigh on economic growth.

Ethereum Has Another 56 Level To Watch

The crypto angle gets more interesting around the 56 mark, per an analyst ‘AshCrypto’. In 2017, ISM broke above 56 before Ethereum rallied from $10 to $1,400. From 2020 to 2021, the same level was followed by a move from $88 to $4,800.

Those historical episodes are the basis for the current comparison, not a guarantee of another repeat.

Today, Ethereum sits around $2,695 and is holding the Monthly MA 50. The latest ISM reading is still below the 56 threshold that previously featured in those two cycles.

Could ISM Strengthen Into A Larger Crypto Cycle?

The setup therefore remains incomplete. If ISM moves higher toward 60 in coming months, the analysis points to the possibility of another major Ethereum and altcoin cycle during 2027 to 2028.

For now, 54.5 is the number on the board. The 56 level is the next key marker, while the Fed faces stronger economic activity alongside inflation concerns. Ethereum remains around $2,695, waiting for the ISM signal to develop further.