Ripple vs SEC Lawsuit Nears Conclusion: Who Will Win? Experts Weigh In

The legal battle between Ripple Labs Inc. and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reached a critical juncture, marked by a significant filing from the regulatory agency. 

All eyes are on the SEC’s final remedies reply brief, set to come out from behind sealed doors and into public view by May 8. This filing is a crucial step in the unfolding drama, paving the way for the judge’s upcoming ruling.

What’s on the Line: Understanding the Stakes

At the heart of the impending judgment lies the SEC’s proposed remedies, which could impact specific Ripple sales, especially those tied to Institutional/ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) transactions. The main question is whether a ruling on Institutional sales would affect ODL transactions, potentially reshaping Ripple’s future operations.

Awaiting the Verdict

Beyond the remedies, the ruling will determine the consequences of alleged securities violations and clarify the status of post-complaint sales of XRP, particularly those involving ODL.

Assessing the Odds

Many observers doubt the SEC’s chances, given their previous setbacks in summary judgment rulings. Notably, the court dismissed three out of four types of XRP sales as failing to meet the criteria of an investment contract under the Howey Test.

• Algorithmic sales of XRP on digital asset trading platforms (Programmatic Sales)
• XRP distributions to Ripple employees and third parties (Other Distributions)
• Sales of XRP by executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen on various digital asset trading platforms

The court’s summary judgment emphasized that XRP doesn’t inherently qualify as an investment contract. While the SEC won concerning institutional sales, ODL transactions remained caught in the crossfire.

Crucial Dates Ahead

While, the SEC’s final remedies reply brief, along with supporting exhibits filed under seal, is expected to be publicly disclosed in redacted form by May 8. Subsequently, on May 13, parties will file omnibus letter motions to seal related materials.  

A week later, they are expected to submit letter briefs opposing the omnibus motions to seal. According to the official document, redacted versions of all documents will be filed within 14 days of the court’s rulings in the public.

Are We Moving Towards a Resolution?

Speculation surrounding the potential penalties suggests a relatively modest fine, likely less than $50 million, and potentially granting Ripple the green light to continue ODL sales.

However, Jeremy Hogan a well-known attorney, has expressed optimism about a potential resolution by this summer, suggesting a settlement agreement of around $100 million between Ripple and the SEC.

Market Response

As of now, XRP’s price has responded positively to recent updates, briefly reaching $0.52 before experiencing a slight decline in the past 24 hours.  

Also Check Out: Ripple vs SEC: Here’s Why May 13th is Key in the XRP Lawsuit

Will the SEC’s final brief be the knockout punch, or is Ripple poised for a comeback? Stay tuned for the judge’s ruling!