CLARITY Act Vote Today [LIVE] Updates: Can Democrats Deliver 60 Votes?

TD Cowen’s base case puts a 60% probability on today’s Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act falling short, with the vote expected around 2:15 PM ET. The bank outlined three other possible outcomes. A 20% chance cloture passes with Democrats getting to introduce their counterproposal as an amendment, a 15% chance the bill gets shelved until after the election, and just a 5% chance it becomes law before then.

Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Monday he plans to vote for cloture on the CLARITY Act, calling himself “very pleased” with what the White House delivered on ethics provisions. He suggested lawmakers with remaining concerns should still let the bill advance to debate. “If it doesn’t address their concerns, once it’s amendable, then don’t vote for it on the back end,” Tillis said.

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt suggested the banking industry isn’t genuinely worried about stablecoin-driven deposit flight, arguing that if it were, lobbyists would be actively pushing senators to advance the bill first and negotiate changes afterward. “If this bill fails, they get none of the protections they claim to desperately need,” Witt said, noting the lobby hasn’t taken that approach. “Draw your own conclusions.”

With the Senate set to vote on the CLARITY Act in just over four hours, the morning brought a flurry of dueling statements. Senator Lummis’s office dismissed Democrats’ counter-offer as unserious, while Senator Warner’s office countered that the asks shouldn’t surprise anyone. Senate Banking Committee spokesperson Jeff Naft, representing Senator Scott’s office, maintained the bill’s text is final. With battle lines drawn on both sides just hours out, the vote’s outcome remains uncertain.

Senate Banking Committee spokesperson Jeff Naft suggested Republicans won’t budge further on the CLARITY Act, saying the final text already reflects more than a year of bipartisan negotiations. “We hope Democrats will recognize the strong bipartisan package in front of them,” Naft said.

A spokesperson for Senator Mark Warner (D-Va.) pushed back after criticism from Senator Cynthia Lummis’s office, saying Democrats’ demands aren’t new. “This is language Democrats have been seeking for the better part of a year,” the spokesperson said. “These provisions should come as no surprise, nor should they be controversial.”

Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz warned that if the CLARITY Act fails to advance tomorrow, comprehensive crypto regulation could be off the table for years, “if ever.” He said the outcome would be damaging for the US and push more of the industry offshore. Novogratz said the broader digital asset revolution would continue regardless, with the SEC and CFTC still able to set interim rules allowing businesses to operate. But he warned that prolonged regulatory uncertainty isn’t good for the industry long-term, urging senators on both sides to “see the big picture.”

Republicans dismissed a CLARITY Act counter-offer from Senate Democrats, with a spokesperson for Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) saying Democrats “have not budged an inch.” The spokesperson added that Democrats “need to actually start negotiating instead of resubmitting the same demands and calling it progress.”

Analyst Scott Melker pushed back on misconceptions circulating about today’s Senate vote, clarifying that the Senate is not actually voting on the CLARITY Act itself today. “They are voting on whether to maybe vote in the future,” Melker said, addressing confusion around prediction markets tied to the bill that he says are closing based on a misunderstanding of what today’s procedural vote actually decides.

Analyst Lewis Harland explained why today’s procedural cloture vote carries outsized weight for the CLARITY Act’s chances. With Republicans holding just 53 of 100 Senate seats, clearing the 60-vote cloture threshold requires meaningful bipartisan support, even assuming full Republican unity. Harland said that once cloture clears, final passage only requires a simple majority. In practice, that means securing 60 votes today would send a strong signal the bill already has enough support to pass the Senate outright.

Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn defended the CLARITY Act against ongoing criticism, calling it a genuine product of years of bipartisan compromise. He said the bill’s core, clear market structure rules with jurisdictional clarity and meaningful new investor protections, represents a “game changer” for both innovation and consumer protection. Thorn dismissed much of the current debate as “basically nitpicking,” arguing that while every concern raised is valid, legislation inherently requires compromise.

Chainlink’s Chris Barrett said he believes the CLARITY Act will pass today with more than 60 votes. After 14 years in crypto and 9 years helping build Chainlink, he called the moment a turning point for America, giving builders, institutions and markets the confidence to move forward. “Today it’s time to pass the Clarity Act,” Barrett said.

Senator Elizabeth Warren called the CLARITY Act “insulting to the American people,” arguing crypto enables criminals and terrorists while threatening financial stability. Senator Cynthia Lummis fired back, accusing Warren’s approach of building a “surveillance state in the making” that would let the federal government monitor Americans through their bank accounts. “This is wrong. This is un-American,” Lummis said.

Today’s Senate vote on H.R. 3633, the CLARITY Act, at 2:15 PM ET is only a procedural step to begin debate, not final passage. It requires 60 votes, meaning at least 7 Democrats must join Republicans, to secure cloture. If successful, a final passage vote requiring just 51 votes would likely follow between Wednesday and Thursday. If it fails, the bill returns to debate for an unspecified period.

Sen. Jon Curtis (R-Utah) told reporters he will vote for cloture on the CLARITY Act, allowing debate to proceed, but remains opposed to the underlying bill as written. “I will vote to proceed, but right now, I’m a no on passage,” Curtis said. Curtis had previously flagged concerns in August over the bill’s potential impact on community bank deposits, a worry that continues to shape his opposition to final passage.

Pro-XRP attorney John Deaton said he predicted two months ago that Democrats would find a reason not to vote for the CLARITY Act, even if Trump agreed to their demands, arguing the real motive is denying Trump any legislative win before the midterms. Deaton, who has said he isn’t a Trump supporter, argued Washington politicians prioritize partisan control above all else. “They hate Trump and despise him being reelected so much that if America was burning to the ground, and it was Trump who held the water hose to put the fire out, they’d turn off the water,” he said.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he’s optimistic the CLARITY Act will advance tomorrow, framing the vote as a test of who supports American leadership in finance. “I’m pretty optimistic that we’re going to get more than 60 votes tomorrow,” Armstrong said, citing thousands of hours of bipartisan work behind the bill. Armstrong called the vote “a massive moment,” saying it will show who backs building the future of the financial system under U.S. regulatory oversight, and who doesn’t. “There’s no do-overs,” he added.

The White House is making a final push to convince Senate Republicans to advance the CLARITY Act today, countering banking industry concerns over stablecoins. Officials plan to launch an interactive tool letting users “set the parameters, run the scenarios, and see for themselves” why the Council of Economic Advisers found no meaningful link between stablecoin growth and community bank deposit flight. The site will also include an FAQ addressing banks’ critiques. “The data simply does not support the deposit flight narrative that DC bank lobbyists are pushing,” said White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt.

A group of Senate Democrats is expected to meet to discuss strategy and coordinate a counterproposal to the CLARITY Act text Republicans released last night, according to Eleanor Terrett, despite the GOP calling it their “last, best and final” offer. Industry sources say the counterproposal is expected to address most, if not all, of the targeted changes Republicans made. It remains unclear whether Republicans will offer further concessions ahead of tomorrow’s vote, or tell Democrats they must vote to advance the bill first if they want additional changes.

The Trump administration is making a final push for Senate Republicans to back the CLARITY Act ahead of Tuesday’s procedural vote, according to Semafor. The White House Council of Economic Advisers plans to release an interactive tool letting users model stablecoin growth against community-bank deposits, arguing current data doesn’t support claims of large-scale deposit flight. Some Republican senators remain wary of stablecoin rewards, while some Democrats say the latest ethics restrictions on Trump don’t go far enough.