Bitcoin has gained roughly 8% since the US-Iran war began. Gold is down. The S&P 500 is down. Asian equities had their worst stretch since 2020. For an asset that critics still call speculative, that’s a result worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin investor and BnkToTheFuture founder Simon Dixon thinks he knows why and his explanation goes deeper than crypto.
When Trump posted on Truth Social that “the USA needs nothing from NATO,” Dixon responded with a point-by-point breakdown of what the US actually depends on.
Europe prints money, buys American weapons and recycles Eurodollars back to Washington. The Middle East keeps oil priced in dollars. Japan runs near-zero interest rates that finance hedge funds. China manufactures the goods that keep global trade flowing. The Global South supplies the minerals the whole system runs on.
Dixon’s conclusion: “If that ends, then US shrinks to a regional power and the financial industrial complex tightens its control and grip on both US and EU.”
He added that European banks are deeply connected to US banks, meaning any financial stress from a prolonged energy shock will be global.
Iran this week rejected Trump’s 15-point ceasefire proposal as “extremely maximalist and unreasonable,” countering with demands for Strait of Hormuz sovereignty and war reparations – both non-starters for Washington. The war is now in its 26th day.
Brent crude is trading around $107, up nearly 48% in a month. JPMorgan has cut its S&P 500 year-end forecast. Goldman Sachs raised its recession odds to 30%, warning that oil-driven inflation could keep the Fed from cutting rates. Former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein said this week that the damage from the war “is going to last” even if there were “a resolution tomorrow”.
This is precisely the environment Dixon was describing – the dollar system under strain, alliances fraying, energy prices doing the damage that no rate policy can easily fix.
Bitcoin dropped 8.5% on February 28 when Operation Epic Fury launched on a Saturday – the only major market open to absorb the shock. Since then, it has made a higher low on every escalation, recovering faster each time.
The dollar system Dixon describes was built on trust, recycled debt and geopolitical arrangements that are now openly contested. Bitcoin doesn’t need any of that to function. Right now, that distinction is showing up in the price.
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