Raoul Pal Says the SEC Chair Gary Gensler Will Not Win Big Cases: ‘They’re Doing It for Politics’

Macro Raoul Pal recently opened up about the approval of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Pal’s thoughts revolve around market timing and the evolving crypto landscape. When questioned about the timing of Bitcoin ETF approval, Pal said there is uncertainty. He suggested that approval might come within the current year. 

In an interview with Thinking Crypto, Pal explained that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF heavily depends on the prevailing market conditions. In his view, the price and overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market play a crucial role. If a Bitcoin ETF had been introduced in October of the previous year, it might not have attracted much interest due to unfavorable market conditions.

He projected that the crypto market could shift towards more favorable conditions by January, potentially marking the beginning of what he called “crypto summer.” By mid-2024, he anticipated that the market narrative could facilitate substantial investment.

Considering the historical context, he suggested that Bitcoin might aim for around three times its previous all-time high. Still, he acknowledged that this return could be less substantial as the market matures. For Ethereum, Pal speculated that it might also aim for approximately three times its all-time high, similar to Bitcoin’s performance in the previous cycle.

He believes that the crypto market could transition from its current $1 trillion valuation to become a $10 trillion asset class, allowing for the possibility of significant returns. However, he refrained from specifying whether it would be a 10x or 5x growth.

Switching to another topic, the conversation touched upon Gary Gensler, the chair of the SEC, and the agency’s ongoing legal battles with companies like Ripple and Coinbase. Pal expressed skepticism about Gensler’s approach, implying that he is pursuing some of these cases for political reasons. 

He said, “So they’re doing it for politics and the court is throwing it out for the right reasons, which is, this is not legal. So I think there’s a bunch of these. I’m sure the SEC will win a couple here and there, but they’re not gonna win these big cases.”