Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Ending? Top 3 Signals and 1 Warning

Bitcoin is trading at $69,230 this morning, up 3.47% in the last 24 hours, after an Axios report confirmed that the US and Iran are in active discussions over a potential 45-day ceasefire, with Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey serving as mediators. Short sellers absorbed the first hit: $196 million in liquidations in 24 hours, with shorts outnumbering longs nearly 3 to 1.

The move pushes Bitcoin toward the top of the $65,000 to $73,000 war range it has been trapped in for five weeks.

Bitcoin Price Level You Need to Watch

Michaël van de Poppe just laid it out.

“If Bitcoin breaks $71K, then markets are in for a test at $80K,” he wrote on X.

The reasoning behind it: volatility is picking up, and he believes the Strait of Hormuz situation is approaching its end stage this week. In that scenario, $71K isn’t just a resistance level – it’s the trigger that opens the door to a move that would mark Bitcoin’s first clean breakout since the war began.

That single level is now the market’s most-watched threshold.

Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom: What Traders Are Reading Right Now

On-chain analyst Willy Woo published a framework laying out the three signs we need to watch for.

“Idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price,” Woo wrote.

His full sequence: price first breaks the cost basis of recent investors, then passive hope gives way to genuine aggressive buying, and that demand surge pushes the cost basis from red to green on-chain. When all three align, the regime has shifted – not just the price.

Whether those conditions are met right now is the open question. One data point that’s hard to ignore: long-term holders now control roughly 80% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Historically, bear market bottoms have coincided with that figure reaching 85%. The market isn’t there yet, but the direction of travel is clear.

Update: Fresh on-chain data posted today supports that direction. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost confirmed that LTH supply has turned positive again for the first time since November, with roughly 308,000 BTC now being added to long-term holder supply on average.

“Historically, this type of behavioral shift has often preceded positive price developments for Bitcoin,” he noted, while cautioning it is still too early to draw firm conclusions.

Also Read: FDIC Stablecoin Meeting April 7: GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act Are Moving This Month

Does 2026 Still Have a Shock Coming?

The ceasefire is only one piece of a broader picture that several analysts believe the market is underestimating.

If the Iran conflict ends, a new Fed chair cuts rates, the CLARITY Act passes, and TradFi begins injecting capital via stablecoins – all of which are either in motion or actively being discussed – the setup for the second half of 2026 looks structurally different from anything the current price reflects.

ETH/BTC is showing signs of gearing up for its strongest move of the cycle.

The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap stocks and serves as one of the clearest signals for broader risk appetite, has broken out and retested – exactly the pattern it followed in the previous two cycles before a sustained move higher.

April, by this read, is the final month of corrective price action. May is where things start moving.

The Reason to Stay Cautious

This exact setup has appeared around three times since the war began. Each time, ceasefire signals lifted Bitcoin before the rally faded. Bitcoin’s technical panel currently shows a Strong Buy on Moving Averages and a Strong Sell on the Oscillator simultaneously.

The market is split. Will $71,000 settle the argument? We’ll keep you posted.