Bitcoin Isn’t in a Bear Market, but in a 50% Bull Market Dip

Published by

Zafar Naik

April 4, 2026

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“Bitcoin going to zero” searches have been trending lately, and Scott Melker says that’s exactly why he’s buying.

In a new interview on Binance’s Inside the Blockchain 100, the Wolf of All Streets made a case that most people caught in the current drawdown aren’t considering: the bear market playbook doesn’t apply to a cycle that never followed the bull market playbook.

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Broken

Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126K in October 2025 early – too early, driven by ETF flows before the market was ready. There was no altcoin season and no blowoff top. We didn’t even hit 2x the previous all-time high, when history suggested 3-4x.

“The cycle is largely broken,” Melker said. “For those who believe we’re about to get an 85 or 90% trip to the downside like previous bear markets, I would ask why we would get commensurate downside if we never got the proportional upside.”

His parallel is summer 2021, when Bitcoin dropped 55% from $65K to $28K before recovering to a new all-time high. The current drawdown from $126K sits at a similar percentage. If that pattern holds, this isn’t a bear market, but just a painful but temporary pause.

Bitcoin Bottom 2026: Four Signals Are Flashing at Once

Melker flagged four signals he watches at cycle bottoms and says all four are flashing right now.

Weekly RSI on the Bitcoin chart is at historic lows, even below 2022 levels. The Fear & Greed Index has hit its lowest reading ever. “Bitcoin going to zero” Google searches are at an all-time high. And Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average, which is a level that has historically marked the bottom of every major cycle.

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Crypto Rover added more context today: 44% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at a loss. That is a capitulation signal.

Is Altcoin Season Dead for Good?

Melker is explicit: Bitcoin bottoming doesn’t mean altcoins recover. His diagnosis for why altcoin liquidity collapsed is specific: prediction markets.

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“I believe prediction markets have very little to do with Bitcoin but have largely destroyed the altcoin cycles,” he said. The gamblers who drove memecoin and altcoin cycles found a better casino. That liquidity isn’t coming back the same way.

His advice for Bitcoin specifically: automate, dollar-cost average, stop watching the price. “I’ve been buying quite a lot in the 60s.”

The silence in the market right now isn’t just fear. According to Melker, it’s what a bottom looks like before anyone admits it.

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