Bitcoin is trading near $76,000 after recent selling pressure, while big investors continue to show interest. This shows a growing gap between weak retail confidence and strong long-term buying by major players.
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe says Bitcoin is now at an important stage, with mixed signals showing a big move could come soon.
According to recent market observations, large financial firms are steadily increasing their exposure to crypto. Coinpedia news reported Morgan Stanley launched a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month, raising $100 million within its first week.
Soon after, Goldman Sachs filed for its own Bitcoin investment product. At the same time, Deutsche Borse invested $200 million into Kraken, while Intercontinental Exchange made a similar move by backing OKX.
These show that large institutions are focusing on building long-term infrastructure rather than reacting to short-term price swings.
Retail Bitcoin activity has fallen to its lowest level since January 2025.
Crpytoquant analyst darfost highlighted the chart showing transactions under $10K, which usually represent small investors. Demand has now dropped to -10%, showing weaker retail interest.
Retail investors have mostly stayed away during this cycle, with only a few short spikes in activity.
This matters because weak retail demand has often appeared during market corrections or near price bottoms.
Another key trend is the rise in stablecoin supply, which is now at record levels. This indicates that capital is ready to enter the market when conditions improve. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs have seen steady inflows since 14th April around $1.5 billion, helping absorb selling pressure.
The current market setup suggests a shift from a highly leveraged environment to a more stable, spot-driven market.
Despite strong institutional activity, Bitcoin price action remains weak in the short term.
Van de poppe note that bitcoin being at its capitulation point means the market may be near a bottom. The van de poppe note 11 indicators are flashing signals last seen in Q4 2022, when Bitcoin later began a strong recovery.
Funding rates are currently negative, meaning short sellers are paying long positions. The futures premium is also at its lowest since 2022, showing low bullish confidence.
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