Bitcoin Price Analysis: Corrective Bounce in Play as Analyst Warns of Drop to $38K

Bitcoin is trading just below an important resistance zone that analysts have been watching since February. The short-term rally has brought prices back to this level but has not broken through it convincingly. Weekend resistance sits between $80,600 and $82,000. Weekend support is between $79,640 and $76,500.

The immediate upside targets if Bitcoin pushes higher are $84,300 to close the open CME gap, then $87,500 and $90,600 as the next resistance levels above that.

Why Analysts Are Not Calling a Bottom Yet

Despite the recent bounce, analysts say there is no confirmed evidence that a meaningful low has formed. Three indicators support that view.

First, Bitcoin has not yet broken below the long-term holder realised price on the onchain cost basis model. In every previous bear market this level was at minimum touched, and in most cases decisively broken, before a major low formed. That has not happened yet.

Second, the current drawdown from the all-time high sits at roughly 53 to 54%. Previous Bitcoin bear markets typically produced drawdowns of 60 to 84% before a genuine bottom. The current correction is historically shallow by comparison.

Third, Elliott Wave analysis suggests the current move is a corrective B-wave bounce within a larger bearish structure. A subsequent C-wave decline remains possible later in the year.

The $38K to $39K Level

If the bearish pattern plays out fully, the next downside target sits between $38,000 and $39,000. That level represents approximately a 70% drawdown from the all-time high and aligns with standard Fibonacci retracement zones analysts use to measure corrections of the prior advance.

That said, analysts stress this is not a confirmed target yet. A B-wave top needs to form first before the C-wave decline can be properly measured.

What Would Turn Bitcoin Bullish

For the bearish case to be invalidated Bitcoin needs to push above $90,000, specifically the 138% Fibonacci extension level. That would confirm a viable third wave is in progress and open the door toward $94,500 and beyond.

Until that level is reached and held, the current structure is viewed as a corrective rally within a broader bearish pattern. Time cycle analysis points to a possible market top forming in the May to June window, with a potential low around October if the cycle holds.