While much of the crypto market is focused on Bitcoin slipping below its 200-week moving average, one crypto analyst said investors may be looking at the wrong part of the market.
He argues that although Bitcoin could still see more volatility, several major altcoins may already be quietly forming their cycle bottoms, similar to what happened during the 2022 bear market.
Many traders are comparing the current setup to June 2022, when Bitcoin broke below its 200-week moving average and eventually fell to a cycle low near $15,500 later that year.
The analyst, however, says the comparison leaves out some important details.
He points to Bitcoin’s bullish RSI divergence, a technical signal that appeared closer to the November-December 2022 bottom rather than during the first leg of the bear market. He also notes that today’s macro environment is different, with quantitative tightening already behind the market instead of just beginning.
According to him, Ethereum was one of the first major altcoins to stabilize during the previous bear market, well before Bitcoin reached its final low.
He further noted that ETH could be following a similar path again as the broader altcoin market starts building a base.
The analyst also pointed out Cardano (ADA) as one of the altcoins that bottomed early during the last cycle.
While sentiment around ADA remains weak, Decode says these periods of extreme fear have historically created some of the best long-term entry points.
Litecoin (LTC) is another project analysts say quietly found its footing before Bitcoin completed its bear market.
He said Litecoin is once again sitting inside what he calls an “opportunity zone” despite broader market uncertainty.
He also pointed to the Binance Smart Chain (BNB) ecosystem, saying it followed the same early-bottom pattern during the previous cycle.
If history repeats, projects within the BNB ecosystem could recover ahead of Bitcoin once market confidence returns.
Looking at the broader TOTAL3 altcoin market cap chart, Decode says the market appears to be setting up much like it did before the last recovery.
While he isn’t ruling out further downside for Bitcoin, he thinks investors shouldn’t assume every cycle unfolds exactly the same way. Instead, Ethereum, Cardano, Litecoin, the BNB ecosystem, and the broader altcoin market may already be quietly forming the foundation for the next major crypto rally.
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