
Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV) has fallen to the lowest 1% of its historical range, a level last seen during the 2022 bear market, indicating investors are paying one of the smallest premiums ever for its Bitcoin holdings. The decline follows Bitcoin’s drop of more than 50% from late-2025 highs, leaving Strategy with over $10 billion in unrealized Bitcoin losses and weighing on its share price. Some market participants view the current valuation as a potential accumulation opportunity similar to 2022, while others expect the stock to fall further if Bitcoin remains weak. Investors are also watching for another Bitcoin purchase after Michael Saylor shared his signature “orange dots” chart, which has previously preceded acquisition announcements.
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