The Ripple vs SEC is finally on the cusp of wrapping up, with a recent announcement made by CEO Brad Garlinghouse about dropping the cross-appeal against the SEC. This breaking news has uplifted the XRP price by more than 5% due to increased interest from retail and institutional investors alike.
This news comes one day after a US district court denied a joint request from Ripple and the SEC. The motion sought to reduce the $125 million civil penalty and reverse a previous order regarding XRP sales.
By ending the appeal, Ripple shows confidence in its business model and regulatory position. If the SEC also drops its appeal, it would formally conclude a four-year conflict and offer clarity for other crypto firms facing SEC scrutiny.
Now, many industry experts expect a clear path for a U.S. spot XRP ETF. They speculate that BlackRock may lead the way, especially after Ripple dropped its appeal against the SEC. While the U.S. is still figuring out alt-ETFs, Canada has already launched the “3iQ XRP ETF,”. This ETF quickly hit $32 million in AUM, indicating strong early demand.
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Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, called Ripple’s recent decision a turning point. Now, the odds are more than ever for XRP ETF to be approved.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg analysts last week raised the XRP ETF approval odds to 95%, and polymarket sees a 78% chance by the year-end. The expectations are running wild, with many even betting that BlackRock would be the most likely player to take the lead, but BlackRock hasn’t confirmed anything yet.
The hopes are high because legal clarity would allow other big players to feel confident enough to explore launching an XRP-backed ETF.
If this is approved, adoption would rise, boosting the XRP price higher too. Yet, Ripple’s CTO, David Schwartz, recently commented that real adoption could rise if cross-chain interoperability in the XRP ecosystem is introduced. And this week’s Wormhole announcement is a clear indication that they are headed that road.
The XRP price has continued its downtrend within a falling channel, dropping over 35% from its Q1 peak, resulting in a bearish first half.
Despite this, XRP is maintaining a strong support area in Q2 and is consolidating near the channel’s upper boundary.
While the H1 price action might appear bearish, but rising bullish sentiment, increased on-chain activity, major integrations, and recent legal clarity suggest a potential breakout ahead.
If the legal battle surrounding XRP concludes favorably, a breakout could target the Q1 high of approximately $3.39, with the possibility of even higher targets.
Even analyst opinions like Captain Redbeard also align with optimistic forecasts. The analyst highlights that if XRP price advances, then a major bounce from the current demand zone could push a rise to $10.
Ripple is not formally “settling” in the traditional sense, as a proposed settlement was rejected. However, Ripple has withdrawn its cross-appeal and accepted the court’s $125 million penalty. The lawsuit is effectively ending as the SEC is also expected to withdraw its appeal.
Analysts are highly optimistic for XRP post-lawsuit. Short-term targets range from $3.00-$3.59, with 12-month potential between $5.00-$8.00, especially with a likely spot XRP ETF approval. Some even project targets as high as $10-$15 in this cycle.
A spot XRP ETF would likely boost XRP’s price significantly by unlocking billions in institutional capital. It would dramatically enhance liquidity, legitimize XRP as a mainstream investment, and shift overall market sentiment to be overwhelmingly positive due to increased accessibility and regulatory clarity.
Yes, the legal clarity from the Ripple case is expected to significantly encourage more institutional investment and product development in the U.S. crypto market. This clearer regulatory environment provides confidence for major players to launch new crypto-backed financial products and engage with digital assets.
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