Internet Computer Nears 300B Transactions—Why Is ICP Price Still Stuck in a Bear Market?

Internet Computer has spent the better part of the past two years trading inside a steep descending channel, with every recovery attempt eventually giving way to another lower high. Even today, the ICP price remains stuck near $2.5, a fraction of its previous cycle highs, despite showing signs of stabilizing in recent weeks.

Besides, the network activity is slowly exploding, leaving the major blockchains like Solana behind. Normally, such fundamental growth would be expected to improve investor sentiment and support higher valuations. Yet ICP continues to trade within a long-term bearish structure. This raises a key question for traders and investors alike: if network activity is exploding, why hasn’t it translated into a sustained ICP price rally?

Internet Computer’s Network Activity Is Booming

The fundamental picture for Internet Computer looks remarkably strong. According to the latest data, the network currently processes around 6.7K transactions per second (TPS), making it the highest-performing blockchain in the comparison and more than double Solana’s 3.2K TPS. 

The gap becomes even more striking considering that most other major networks process fewer than 250 TPS, highlighting ICP’s scalability advantage. Besides, over the past 180 days, Internet Computer has processed approximately 75.7 billion transactions, with daily transaction counts rising from roughly 300-350 million at the beginning of the period to peaks approaching 750-800 million in May. 

Even after that spike, the network has consistently maintained daily activity well above earlier levels, indicating that usage remains elevated rather than being a one-off event. From a fundamental perspective, these metrics would typically support a stronger valuation because rising transaction counts often signal growing ecosystem activity and adoption. 

ICP Price Remains Trapped in a Long-Term Downtrend Despite Improving Fundamentals

On the weekly timeframe, ICP has been trading inside a well-defined descending channel since early 2024, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. The recent bounce toward $2.5 has done little to change that structure. In fact, the token is still trading near the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting that buyers are defending support but lack the momentum needed to trigger a meaningful breakout. 

Until ICP closes above the channel’s upper trendline, the broader trend remains firmly bearish.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) has stabilized and even shows signs of gradual improvement, indicating that selling pressure may be easing. However, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator continues to trend lower, suggesting that large-scale accumulation by long-term investors has yet to materialize. In other words, while trading activity has improved, consistent capital inflows remain limited.

Therefore, the ICP price needs to rise and break above the descending parallel channel; until then, it may continue to remain within a technical bear market. 

What’s Next for ICP Price?

For traders, the focus should remain on price structure rather than network milestones. As long as ICP trades inside the descending channel, the broader trend favors the bears despite the surge in on-chain activity.

The first bullish signal would be a sustained move above $3.00, followed by a breakout of the channel that could open the door toward $4.00-$4.50 this quarter. On the downside, failure to hold the $2.20-$2.30 support zone could invite another round of selling, with $1.80-$2.00 emerging as the next key demand area.

Until a breakout occurs, traders should view rallies as recovery attempts rather than confirmed trend reversals.