Trump-Putin Diesel Deal: Will US Crude Oil Fall Below $90?

US Crude oil is at risk of falling below $90 as President Donald Trump’s proposed Russian diesel deal raises fresh pressure on energy prices. WTI dropped toward $90 after the announcement before recovering, leaving the market at a critical level ahead of Monday’s session. If selling resumes, crude could test lower support; if buyers hold the $90 zone, a rebound toward $100 remains possible.

Trump-Putin Diesel Deal: Will Russian Supplies Pressure Oil Prices?

Trump announced that Russia would supply additional diesel, including more than 300,000 metric tons immediately and 500,000 tons in November, with further shipments planned. The US also authorized Russian diesel imports under a temporary license extending through April 7, 2027.

The announcement put pressure on refined-fuel markets. US diesel futures fell nearly 5%, while the diesel crack spread against WTI crude declined by $6.45 per barrel. WTI crude oil price briefly dropped toward $90 before recovering part of its losses.

The deal’s direct impact on crude oil remains uncertain. Diesel is a refined product, and additional shipments do not automatically increase crude production. However, lower diesel prices could squeeze refinery margins and reduce refiners’ willingness to pay higher prices for crude. The bearish impact on WTI will depend on the volume of fuel delivered and whether the additional supply materially changes market conditions.

Iran Tensions Keep Oil Supply Risks in Focus

Developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain important for crude oil prices because disruptions to regional shipping could affect global energy supplies. Any escalation could offset some of the downward pressure from the Russian diesel arrangement.

WTI price settled Friday at $91.85 per barrel, up 0.39%, while Brent crude closed at $104.72, gaining 0.42%. Both benchmarks finished higher despite the initial reaction to Trump’s announcement. The recovery suggests that traders have not fully priced in a sustained decline in crude oil.

US Crude Oil Price Analysis: Will WTI Break Below $90?

US Crude Oil price is trading near $91.67, with the $88–$90 zone acting as immediate support. The recovery from the initial decline has kept crude above this area, but a sustained break below $90 would put buyers under pressure. If WTI price falls below $88, the next downside target is $83–$85. 

Further selling could bring the $75–$78 region into focus. The RSI near 50 signals neutral momentum, with no decisive bullish or bearish confirmation yet. On the upside, holding above $90 could open a recovery toward $95–$100. A sustained move below $88 would provide stronger evidence that sellers are gaining control, while a rebound above $95 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook.

US Crude Oil Outlook: What to Expect on Monday

The Russian diesel deal could weigh on WTI, but its impact will depend on actual supply increases and broader market conditions. The $90 level is the immediate test: a break below it could expose $88, followed by $83–$85 if selling continues. If buyers defend support, WTI could rebound toward $95–$100. A confirmed break below $88 would provide a stronger signal of further downside.