Ethereum’s price action has turned quiet again. After recent volatility, ETH has slipped back into consolidation, frustrating traders looking for follow-through in either direction. Yet despite the lack of momentum, price behavior itself is beginning to tell a more constructive story.
Rather than extending lower, Ethereum continues to hold a crucial support zone, even after briefly slipping below short-term moving averages. This kind of price behavior often signals stabilization, not weakness, especially when downside attempts fail to attract sustained selling pressure.
So what’s next for the ETH price? When will it break the resistance and rise above $3500?
On higher timeframes, Ethereum has managed to defend an area that previously acted as demand during prior pullbacks. While ETH has not reclaimed aggressive resistance levels yet, it has also avoided a deeper breakdown, suggesting sellers are struggling to push the price meaningfully lower.
This is reinforced by Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin, as shared by popular analyst Michael van de Poppe. After briefly dipping below short-term momentum levels, ETH/BTC failed to sustain trade below ~0.052 BTC, quickly reclaiming that zone and compressing back into its prior range. ETH/BTC is not printing lower lows. Instead, price is consolidating above a defended support band, signaling that selling pressure is being absorbed rather than extended.
The weakening downside in ETH/BTC aligns with broader Ethereum supply dynamics. Ethereum’s active wallet count has reached a record 175.5 million, with 5.16 million new wallets added in 2026 alone, pointing to expanding participation even as the relative price remains compressed. At the same time, liquid ETH supply continues to decline. More ETH is moving into staking and long-term holdings, reducing the amount of supply that can rotate quickly back into Bitcoin during periods of uncertainty.
Large treasury accumulation reinforces this trend. BitMine Immersion now holds approximately 4.24 million ETH, or about 3.52% of the total Ethereum supply, after adding 40,302 ETH in a single day. This type of accumulation is insensitive to short-term ETH/BTC fluctuations and removes supply from active rotation.
Together, these factors help explain why ETH/BTC has struggled to break down meaningfully. With less ETH available to rotate and increasing long-duration holding, downside continuation against Bitcoin is losing strength, even without a decisive upside breakout.
One of the clearest contributors to ETH’s tightening supply comes from BitMine Immersion’s treasury accumulation. The firm now holds approximately 4.24 million ETH, after adding 40,302 ETH in a single day, bringing its total exposure to roughly 3.52% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.
This is not tactical positioning. At current prices, BitMine’s ETH holdings represent a multi-billion-dollar balance-sheet allocation, accumulated without waiting for upside momentum or breakout confirmation. In short, Ethereum is not on exchanges, is not rotating against Bitcoin and is not responding to short-term volatility.
When combined with declining exchange balances and rising staking participation, BitMine’s accumulation reinforces a key price dynamic: Ethereum’s relative supply is shrinking at current ETH/BTC levels, even as price remains compressed.
Ethereum’s price has remained stable because selling pressure is easing while long-term supply continues to tighten. Exchange balances are falling, staking participation is rising, and active wallets have reached 175.5 million, showing broader ownership even as price stays range-bound. At the same time, large holders such as BitMine Immersion have absorbed significant supply, now holding over 4.2 million ETH, reducing the amount available for quick selling.
These dynamics explain why Ethereum has struggled to move lower despite recent volatility. While immediate upside may remain limited, renewed demand could meet a tighter market. In that case, ETH could test $3,450–$3,500, with a stronger move opening the path toward $3,700–$3,800. Downside risk increases only if ETH slips below $3,250.
Markets often lag fundamentals. When supply tightens without a clear demand trigger, price can stay range-bound until a catalyst forces repricing, such as macro shifts or renewed inflows.
Extended consolidation usually compresses volatility, increasing the probability of a sharper move later. Traders often see this as a setup phase rather than a signal to exit.
Long-term holders and entities accumulating off exchanges benefit most, as reduced liquid supply can amplify upside moves once demand accelerates.
A sustained ETH/BTC breakout, changes in macro liquidity, or increased institutional inflows could act as catalysts by shifting demand dynamics against a tightening supply backdrop.
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