In the past few months, Bitcoin has been following a pattern of experiencing a short-term positive impact after a positive event. The recent FOMC meeting, which kept the rates unchanged, induced strength in crypto and the traditional markets. But it appeared to be a short-lived rally as the bears quickly jumped in and extracted profits. This raises concerns over the next price action of BTC as it remained more or less depleted throughout Q1 2025 in the times when the market experts predicted a strong bull run.
Is the local bottom in for the BTC price rally or more pain is on the horizon?
The recent rise to $87,000 has increased the optimism among the market participants, who expected a surge above $90,000. Meanwhile, the dropped strength of the bulls triggered the bearish activity that dragged the levels back to their initial position. The price is currently trading just above $84,000 at around $84,400 and hence, holding the daily candle anywhere between $84,000 and $85,000 is extremely important for the token to prevent falling back to the local lows.
Gold has recently smashed new highs after surging above $3000 per ounce, which is said to be the biggest bull run. On the other hand, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin continue to consolidate within a narrow range. Moreover, both rallies have been forming a plunging ever since Donald Trump was sworn in as the new President of the U.S.
Interestingly, the gold prices also took off around the same time, which suggests a momental shift of investors’ sentiments and liquidity onto the traditional investment tool. Besides, a massive drop in the BTC spot volume also substantiates the claim. Currently, Gold is outperforming Bitcoin, as the ratio between them is also falling apart. This suggests until the gold bull run is active, the BTC price rally may remain consolidated within a narrow range.
Ever since the BTC price broke below the multi-month ascending support, the token has been trading under a strong bearish influence. Moreover, the failed attempt to rise above the trend line has made bears more confident. As a result, the bulls have been falling for lack of strength after a small upswing, which does not appear to be good for a healthy price rally. In the times when the market participants expect a rebound to $90,000, the broader price dynamics suggest more bearish actions are on the horizon.
The weekly chart of Bitcoin suggests the price is trying hard to clear the crucial resistance at the 200-day weekly MA at $84,634.23. With this, the price may enter the pivotal resistance zone between $85,296 and 86,466. However, the RSI continues to form lower highs and lows while the OBV follows the trend. This suggests a significant outflow of liquidity, due to which the strength of the rally is dropping consistently. Moreover, the price continues to consolidate of test the local bottoms, and the possibility of a death cross could be more viable in the long term, which could have a massive impact.
Now that the Bitcoin price is closely following the S&P500, it is very important to stay focused on the larger economy, the stock market, and the US and global M2.
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