XRP Price Prediction: Two Scenarios if the CLARITY Act Passes or Fails

XRP price continues to hover around the $1.33 level, reflecting a prolonged consolidation phase. The altcoin is no longer driven purely by utility or network growth. Instead, the focus has shifted to legislation, specifically, the proposed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

According to analysts, including Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered, the regulatory outcome could act as a binary catalyst for XRP.

Banks Waiting on Clear Rules, Says Brad Garlinghouse

In a recent interview on March 25, Brad Garlinghouse highlighted how important the legislation could be not just for XRP but for the broader financial system. He said that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could open the door for U.S. banks to participate more fully in the cryptocurrency market. 

According to Garlinghouse, regulatory clarity represents a key step toward institutional adoption, as traditional financial institutions are unlikely to engage meaningfully without a clearly defined legal framework.

He added that once rules are established, banks are expected to move more decisively into crypto-related services, potentially accelerating liquidity and product development across the sector.

Garlinghouse also pointed to a possible timeline, suggesting that meaningful progress could arrive by late spring, with some expectations leaning toward a resolution by the end of May, though he acknowledged that legislative timelines remain uncertain.

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Two Diverging Paths for the XRP Price Ahead of Clarity Act 2026

The market is now pricing in two distinct scenarios.

If the CLARITY Act passes

Should the legislation move forward, analysts expect a significant shift in institutional behavior. Regulatory clarity would remove one of the biggest barriers to entry for hedge funds, pension funds, and asset managers.

Estimates suggest XRP-linked exchange-traded products could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in inflows. Such a development could trigger a repricing event, pushing XRP well beyond its current range.

On-chain data appears to support this possibility. Exchange reserves have been declining, while large holders continue accumulating—often interpreted as positioning ahead of a major catalyst.

If the bill stalls

On the flip side, failure to pass the legislation could extend XRP’s current stagnation. In that scenario, analysts expect the token to trade within a narrower band, roughly between $1.50 and $2.50.

Without regulatory clarity, institutional adoption in the U.S. would likely remain subdued. Price movement would then depend more heavily on macro trends and overall crypto market sentiment rather than XRP-specific developments.

A Decisive Window for Ripple XRP

There are increasing signs that progress is being made.

Rostin Behnam says the CLARITY Act is close to being finished, and Ripple leaders are also optimistic it will be resolved soon. If it moves forward by late spring, the next few weeks could be very important.

If passed, the law could bring more institutional money, bank involvement, and new financial products to XRP. If not, XRP may continue to follow the broader crypto market without a strong push higher.

Either way, the next two months could be crucial for XRP’s future.

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