XRP Price Outlook: Will September Bring a 25% Correction or Fresh Upside?

XRP is back in focus this September as traders weigh signs of a potential shift in momentum. After briefly touching the $3 mark in August, the token has cooled off but continues to trade steadily near $2.80. 

The question on everyone’s mind: is XRP preparing for another leg higher, or could September bring a deeper correction?

Open Interest Spike Signals Strong Market Activity

One of the clearest signals came from the derivatives market. XRP’s open interest (OI), the total value of futures and options contracts, surged to over $3.5 billion during its rally toward $3. This reflected strong speculative demand, with traders piling into leveraged bets on price movement.

Since then, OI has dropped, but XRP is still holding above $2.80. Trader Tyler McKnight says this could mean the market is simply resetting after heavy activity, not turning weak.

Institutional Demand Still Missing

While derivatives trading has been robust, institutional adoption remains muted. Unlike Bitcoin, which has ETFs and strong inflows, XRP is waiting for approval of eight spot ETFs in the U.S. Even after the favorable court ruling, big firms remain cautious, leaving smaller players as the main buyers.

For now, only smaller players have shown interest in holding XRP as a reserve asset.

Technical Charts Warn of Downside Risk

XRP price has already slipped about 6.7% over the past week, trading around $2.83. On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is on the verge of a bearish crossover, a pattern that previously marked corrections of 50% or more in 2021 and again in early 2025.

If history repeats, XRP could slide toward its 50-week EMA near $2.17, representing a potential 25% drop. This aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, often seen as strong support.

On the flip side, any positive news could lift XRP back above $3, and if it holds that level, the next target could be around $3.36.