The Clarity Act is heading toward a make-or-break moment. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has put the odds of the bill passing by April at 80%, and the White House has set a March 1 target to resolve the stablecoin yield dispute holding it up.
If it passes, XRP would be classified as a digital commodity. That single shift would greenlight U.S. banks for On-Demand Liquidity adoption and open the floodgates for ETF products.
If it doesn’t clear before midterm election season, Jake Claver of Digital Ascension Group warns the window could close. Passing legislation gets much harder once the political cycle takes over.
A year ago, Claver would have said banks were not ready. That changed after he attended the Ondo Summit and several recent industry events. BNY Mellon is already custodying RLUSD. Fidelity, Citi, and Franklin Templeton are all leaning in.
JP Morgan runs Onyx for internal settlement but needs interoperability with external chains, something only full regulatory clarity unlocks.
Ripple CTO David Schwartz has framed the real barrier differently. According to Claver, Schwartz has stated the main obstacle is not clarity itself but asset volatility. Banks want a high, stable XRP price, not a volatile one.
The early signals are already showing. XRP saw $5 million in inflows within the first five minutes of a recent morning session. Payment volume between accounts surged roughly 400%.
Ripple has assembled an end-to-end infrastructure. Hidden Road is now Ripple Prime. G Treasury is now Ripple Treasury. Ripple 1 bundles stablecoin issuance, custody, and digital identity into one integrated product.
Paraphrasing Garlinghouse, Claver said: “It really doesn’t matter which way it goes as long as we have something in place and we’re going to be able to run because we’re so far ahead of everybody else.”
Once the Clarity Act passes, NDA expirations could unleash a wave of partnership announcements. Deutsche Bank has already gone public. Ripple President Monica Long expects full-scale institutional adoption for the XRP Ledger in 2026.
Bitcoin dominance has fallen from 61% in November to roughly 58%, signaling capital is beginning to shift toward large-cap alts. But Claver warns this cycle’s rotation will look different.
Bitcoin is now held primarily through ETFs and structured products, not on exchanges. The liquidity leaving BTC will likely flow into structured vehicles, not traditional altcoin markets.
For XRP, that distinction matters. If clarity arrives and institutional products scale, XRP sits at the front of that queue.
If Congress does not act before midterms, legislative priorities often shift toward campaigning and partisan positioning. That can delay crypto regulation for months or even years, extending uncertainty for companies and financial institutions planning long-term integration.
U.S. banks, payment providers, and asset managers would gain clearer compliance pathways. Institutional investors could also access XRP through regulated structures, reducing legal ambiguity around custody, trading, and product issuance.
Clear U.S. rules may give networks like the XRP Ledger an advantage in attracting institutional partnerships. Platforms without defined regulatory treatment could face slower adoption from banks that require strict compliance standards.
Investors should monitor congressional timelines, White House negotiations on stablecoin provisions, and public statements from regulators. Institutional product filings and bank partnership announcements may also signal how quickly the market responds.
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