XRP Price Analysis: Carry Trade Risk, Drop Below $1, and Next Bull Run Explained

XRP is approaching what several technical analysts believe could be the final stage of its bear market cycle, with price structure pointing toward a low in the $0.87 to $0.90 range before a meaningful recovery begins. 

The timeline, based on Elliott Wave analysis and historical cycle comparisons, points to late June through early July as the window for that final capitulation event.

Where XRP Stands Right Now

XRP is currently trading around $1.09, working through what analysts identify as a Wave 2 recovery within a broader five-wave downward structure that began after the recent high of $1.29. The current bounce toward the $1.20 to $1.22 zone represents the typical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target for Wave 2, a level where price tends to show exhaustion before the next leg lower begins.

A break above $1.30 would invalidate the current bearish wave count and force a reassessment. The $0.87 target is not fully invalidated until XRP breaks above $1.65 and holds that level as support. Until either of those conditions is met, the bearish structure remains technically intact.

The Five-Wave Breakdown Explained

The projected move unfolds across five waves. Wave 1 took XRP from $1.29 down to $1.12. Wave 2, the current recovery, is targeting approximately $1.20 to $1.22. Wave 3, the most aggressive and typically the longest wave in a downtrend, is projected to push XRP down to around $0.94. A brief Wave 4 recovery toward $1.08 follows before Wave 5 completes the structure at approximately $0.87, marking the end of the bear market cycle for this asset.

The timing of this structure projects the final low into late June through early July, a pattern consistent with what occurred in the previous cycle where XRP found its bear market low in mid-July before its most significant bull run.

The Carry Trade Risk

An additional risk factor entering the picture is the Japanese yen carry trade. Japan appeared to intervene in currency markets on Monday, sending the yen from 169 down sharply before stabilising. The last time the carry trade unwound aggressively in August 2024, XRP dropped approximately 35% over the course of a single week, falling from $0.66 to $0.43.

Applying the same percentage decline to current price levels, an approximately 30% drop from the recent high of $1.09 produces a target range of $0.84 to $0.90, aligning closely with the Elliott Wave projection. 

The Bullish Case Building Underneath

While short-term price structure points lower, the longer-term fundamental picture for XRP is developing in ways that are not yet reflected in the price. The XRP Ledger led all blockchains in real-world asset tokenisation inflows over the past 90 days, attracting approximately $1.9 billion and pulling ahead of Ethereum, Solana, Stellar and others. That figure has since grown toward approximately $3 billion.

The New York Stock Exchange owner ICE has partnered with OKX to develop issuer-based tokenised equities on-chain, and the XRP Ledger’s current momentum in the RWA space positions it as a natural candidate for that infrastructure.

What to Watch

Three levels define the near-term outlook. $1.22 is the Wave 2 exhaustion zone where selling pressure may return. $1.30 is the level that invalidates the current bearish wave count. $0.87 is the projected final low of the bear market cycle.

If the carry trade unwind accelerates and the wave structure plays out as projected, XRP below $1.00 in late June or early July represents the window that cycle-aware investors are preparing for.