There’s growing speculation that Gary Gensler, the current head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), may resign soon. Many analysts believe this is the most likely outcome, as Gensler is facing increasing pressure, especially from political circles.
If President Trump appoints a new, crypto-friendly SEC chair, the shift in leadership could bring major changes. Commissioners like Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda, who have expressed more favorable views toward crypto, could play key roles in shaping the future of the industry.
Legal experts, including attorney James Murphy, believe that many ongoing crypto-related cases will be resolved or dismissed by 2025. The Ripple appeal, which aims to determine whether secondary market trades of crypto are considered securities, may not survive a leadership change at the SEC. Hester Peirce, if promoted to chairman, is likely to advocate for halting these cases. If the majority of the commission agrees that these cases are based on flawed legal reasoning, they could be dropped, leading to quicker resolutions.
Dismissal or Settlement: With a new SEC leadership, the agency may quickly move to settle or dismiss cases that it deems unworthy of further pursuit. This could include actions against platforms like Coinbase, where the SEC is challenging the classification of crypto tokens as investment contracts.
Continued Enforcement: If Congress doesn’t act quickly, the SEC may continue its enforcement actions until new crypto regulations are passed. There’s potential for cases like Ripple to drag on until mid-2025 if lawmakers introduce new laws on crypto classification and regulation.
A Stay of Proceedings: Another option is for the courts to delay further action until Congress passes clear regulations for cryptocurrencies. This would hold the current cases in a holding pattern until the legal framework becomes clearer.
Attorney Jeremy Hogan agrees with this outlook, adding that Trump, if elected president, is unlikely to approach the SEC with subtlety. Instead, he predicts that Trump will bring in a new SEC chair who will quickly dismantle existing crypto-related cases.
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