The launch of the first XRP spot ETF on Nasdaq created major excitement, but instead of rising, XRP dropped around 8%, surprising investors who expected an instant rally. New data shows that while the inflows were impressive for day one, the amount was still too small to move a $138B market cap asset like XRP.
The first ETF recorded approximately $245M in inflows and almost $60M in trading volume on launch day. While this set a record for a new XRP product, it represents under 1% of XRP’s total market value.
This means the inflows were not powerful enough to create demand pressure, so the price fell nearly 8% as traders took profit and hype cooled.
Many assumed that ETF inflows would instantly remove XRP from exchanges. However, current structure shows ETF inflows do not always equal direct spot buying, which means they do not instantly push price up.
Analysts estimate that for a meaningful price breakout, XRP may need 10x to 15x larger inflows, equal to $3B to $5B in a single day.
Data from major exchanges shows approximately 2.4B XRP tokens are liquid and ready for trading, equal to about $5B in value.OTC desks reportedly hold an additional $5B to $12B in deep liquidity.
Large institutions buying at OTC desks typically pay a 5% to 15% premium to avoid pushing the price higher on spot markets. While this is positive for long-term supply reduction, it does not impact exchange price immediately.
Technical analysis shows a bullish divergence forming on the RSI, which can mean a potential trend reversal. However, for a confirmed breakout, analysts are watching for daily closes above $2.68. To reach that level, strong new demand from multiple ETFs launching together may be required.
Experts believe that at least $1 to $3 billion in inflows in a single day could begin to push XRP upward by 40 to 50 cents, while $5 billion or more may produce a clear rally.
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