The crypto market just staged one of its strongest single-day recoveries in weeks. Bitcoin surged from $63,000 to above $68,000, altcoins posted double-digit gains, and nearly $400 million in short positions were liquidated in 24 hours.
In a recent video analysis, crypto analyst Dan Gambardello connected three signals behind the move: the Jane Street lawsuit, historically oversold RSI levels, and macro indicators most traders are ignoring.
Terraform Labs’ estate filed a lawsuit against Jane Street, alleging the trading firm used insider information to profit from the $40 billion TerraUSD collapse in 2022. According to the suit, Jane Street sold its UST holdings on May 7, 2022, just hours before the stablecoin lost its peg.
What caught Gambardello’s attention was the timing. The day after the lawsuit dropped, the recurring “10 AM manipulation” pattern that traders had been tracking for months reportedly stopped. BTC jumped $2,000 and $120 million in shorts were liquidated.
He was clear that this is conspiracy-level speculation, not a confirmed thesis. Jane Street has called the allegations “baseless” and “desperate.”
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has dropped to around 25.6, the most oversold reading in BTC’s entire history. The only two times it fell below 30 before were January 2015 near $200 and December 2018 near $3,500. Both came right before cycle bottoms.
But Gambardello warned against jumping to conclusions. In 2022, a similar oversold signal appeared, but the actual bottom came months later.
“Don’t sit here and be so certain the bottom is in. Time to go 10x, 20x, right? We’ll track that journey as it happens, but manage your risk,” he said.
Also Read: Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom or Another Leg Down? 5 Signals That Will Decide
XRP gained 7%, ADA surged 12%, LINK jumped 13%, and ETH climbed 9%. The OTHERS/BTC chart is sitting at record oversold levels, and the MACD line has crossed above the signal line for the first time in months.
That said, BTC dominance still has not broken down. The Altcoin Season Index is at 35, well below the 75 mark needed to confirm an altseason.
Gambardello also pointed to the Russell 2000 mirroring 2015-2017 pre-breakout structure, a pattern that has historically lined up with altcoin bull runs. PMI data arriving Monday could be the next macro trigger.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $68,190. The Jane Street legal battle continues, PMI data lands Monday, and whether this bounce turns into a real reversal comes down to follow-through.
“We are, in my opinion, nowhere near the top of the move, even though maybe it looks like it,” Gambardello said.
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