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Will an XRP Spot ETF Get Approved? Research Says It’s Unlikely

Published by
Vignesh S G

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is confident that an XRP spot ETF is inevitable. In fact, Polymarket bettors seem to agree, giving it an 81% chance of approval this year. Sounds promising, right?

But hold on – a new study by top ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tells a different story. According to his research, XRP has lower approval odds than Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and even Dogecoin (DOGE). Yes, you read that right—DOGE, the meme coin, might have a better shot at an ETF than XRP!

So, what’s really going on? And why is XRP falling behind? Let’s dive into the details.

Why Is XRP ETF Facing a Tough Time?

Balchunas’s research suggests XRP has only a 65% chance of getting a spot ETF approval in 2024. The main reason? The SEC does not classify XRP as a commodity, which makes approval more difficult.

Despite these challenges, XRP’s price remains strong. It is currently trading at $2.49, with a 365.8% increase over the past year—despite market ups and downs fueled by Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC.

Solana Has Better Odds Than XRP

The study also reveals that Solana (SOL) has a stronger chance of getting an ETF than XRP. The research gives SOL over a 70% probability of approval in 2025.

This is surprising because the SEC labeled SOL an unregistered security in its lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance. However, the report notes that the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s Solana ETF proposal boosts its chances.

Currently, SOL is priced at $202.50, up 84.4% in the past year.

Litecoin ETF Has the Best Odds

Importantly, the research notes that there is a 90% probability of an LTC spot ETF to get approval from the US SEC in 2025. 

The research emphasises its clear regulatory status as a prime reason enabling it to gain a better position than XRP and SOL.

At the moment, LTC is trading at $127.44, showing a 76.7% increase over the past year. Just in the last seven days, it has surged by 27%.

Dogecoin’s ETF Chances Shock Analysts

The biggest surprise in the research? Dogecoin (DOGE) has a better chance at ETF approval than both XRP and SOL.

While the report doesn’t give an exact percentage, it states that DOGE—a meme coin—has “far better” odds of getting SEC approval than the two major altcoins.

Balchunas’s research suggests that XRP has the lowest ETF approval odds among major altcoins, while Litecoin has the highest.

However, Polymarket traders are much more optimistic about an XRP ETF. In the end, the SEC’s stance will determine which cryptocurrencies get approval.

With the ETF race heating up, XRP may need more than just optimism to secure its spot among the approved.

Vignesh S G

Vignesh is a young journalist with a decade of experience. A proud alumnus of IIJNM, Bengaluru, he spent six years as a Sub-Editor for a leading business magazine, published from Kerala. His interest in futuristic technologies took him to a US-based software company specialising in Web3, Blockchain and AI. This stint inspired him to view the future of journalism through the lens of next generation technologies. Now, he covers the crypto scene for Coinpedia, uncovering a vibrant new world where technology and journalism converge.

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