News View Non-AMP

Why Past Bitcoin Halvings May Not Predict Future Prices: Goldman’s Warns

Published by
Mustafa Mulla

In just two days, the cryptocurrency world braces for a pivotal event: the Bitcoin halving. This anticipated occurrence is poised to slice the reward for mining Bitcoin in half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, marking a significant milestone in Bitcoin’s evolution. 

Past halving events have often sparked prolonged price rallies, but a nuanced perspective emerges from investment titan Goldman Sachs, urging caution against simplistic interpretations.

Goldman Sachs’ Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equities team underscored the historical trend of BTC price appreciation post-halving but stressed the need to consider prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Previous halvings occurred against a backdrop of rapid growth in the M2 money supply of major central banks and near-zero interest rates, fostering risk-taking behavior across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Macroeconomic Shift: Then vs. Now

Previous halvings occurred against a backdrop of rapid growth in the M2 money supply of major central banks and near-zero interest rates, fostering risk-taking behavior across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

However, today’s macroeconomic landscape presents a stark contrast, with high inflation and interest rates prevailing. Major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People’s Bank of China, have witnessed significant increases in their M2 money supplies. This divergence raises questions about the potential impact of the halving on Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Despite these macroeconomic shifts, the Bitcoin price has surged impressively this year, reaching record highs well ahead of the halving. Inflows into U.S.-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have played a pivotal role in this surge, with significant assets under management amassed within a short span.

Read Also : Crypto Price Prediction Post Bitcoin Halving: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?

Post-Halving Outlook

Analysts remain divided on the post-halving outlook, with some suggesting that a considerable portion of the anticipated surge has already been priced in. Others anticipate a “sell-the-fact” pullback following the event. Goldman Sachs views the halving as a psychological reminder of Bitcoin’s capped supply but emphasizes the medium-term outlook’s dependence on the adoption of BTC ETFs.

As the countdown to the halving continues, the convergence of market dynamics and macroeconomic conditions sets the stage for a potentially transformative moment in Bitcoin’s journey. 

Read More : Bitcoin Halving 2024: How Will It Impact Your Bitcoin ETFs? 

Mustafa Mulla

Mustafa has been writing about Blockchain and crypto since many years. He has previous trading experience and has been working in the Fintech industry since 2017.

Recent Posts

Where to Buy Influencer Pepe Before It Hits Major Exchanges!

A new meme coin that is gaining significant attention in the cryptocurrency market is Influencer…

March 31, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) Drops Toward Range Lows While Whales Accumulate a New Token Priced at $0.025

While Bitcoin hovers near its recent range lows, a quiet shift is taking place in…

March 31, 2025

Dogecoin is Facing Rising Bearish Threat as It Drops Toward $0.16: Will Buyers Bounce Back?

Dogecoin has experienced a significant decline in the past few hours, facing a sharp selloff…

March 31, 2025

ICB Labs Expands Global Presence with Strategic Partnerships, Staking Opportunities, and Upcoming DEX Launch

ICB Labs continues its global expansion, strengthening its blockchain ecosystem through strategic collaborations, enhanced staking…

March 31, 2025

Best Crypto to Invest in if You Want Become A Crypto Whale: Top 3 Crypto Investments of 2025

Are you a crypto newbie who wants to become a crypto whale? If so, you've…

March 31, 2025

Remittix Raises Over $14 Million in Record Time as Presale Is Predicted to Be the Best of 2025

The crypto landscape has been stunned by the rapid success of Remittix which obtained over…

March 31, 2025